Goldman Sachs’ latest analysis of the U.S. stock market has drawn significant attention across markets.
According to the bank, even as near-term risks in equities ease, macro uncertainties remain significant, and markets may be “underpricing” deeper downside risks. Notably, this view mirrors recent reports that argue equities look overvalued, with AI-driven momentum accounting for much of the upside.
At the same time, current macro signals seem to reinforce this thesis. For instance, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 4.5% and has now climbed past 4.63%, marking its highest level since February 2025. Against this backdrop, the key question becomes: what does this mean for the crypto market?
A closer reading of the analysis points to rising oil prices as a key risk for equities. According to the report, the longer markets go without a “clear” peace agreement and a “credible” reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the higher the probability that energy shortages re-emerge as a major macro risk. As the bank noted,
The longer we go without a clear peace agreement and a convincing reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the more likely we are to revisit that risk as energy product shortages become clearer.
Interestingly, macro signals are already starting to reflect this view. Following fresh warnings toward Iran from U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside rising Treasury yields and a drop in the Fear & Greed Index, macro uncertainty appears to be creeping back into equities, increasing the risk of renewed market volatility.
However, one key signal suggests crypto may not move in lockstep with this risk-off environment. Instead, a major market metric indicates investors could be starting to price in crypto’s potential “undervaluation.”
As equities wobble, crypto liquidity tells a different story
Energy markets remain under pressure, in line with Goldman Sachs’ outlook.
On the technical side, oil prices have climbed nearly 10% in under two weeks, moving closer to $120/barrel and bringing inflation risks back into focus. At the same time, rising Treasury yields are adding further pressure as investors rotate into bonds, raising the risk that crypto could see a similar sell-off as equities.
However, stablecoin flows may be the key variable this cycle. As the chart below shows, liquidity remains strong across crypto. In May, high-cap assets all outperformed the S&P 500. Monthly flows are also turning positive. ETFs added $1.51 billion, stablecoins saw $2.49 billion in inflows, and CEX holdings increased by $3.29 billion.
In short, the crypto market continues to show strong liquidity on a monthly basis, despite short-term volatility pushing prices below key resistance levels. This divergence supports the view that crypto may be underpriced, with liquidity continuing to build underneath the surface.
In this context, Goldman Sachs’ outlook may be arriving at a timely moment. If investors are underpricing macro risks while equities remain stretched, it could create conditions for crypto to attract incremental capital, setting up a more liquidity-driven rotation going forward.
Final Summary
- Macro risks are rising as equities look stretched, and Goldman Sachs flags possible underpriced downside risk.
- Crypto is holding liquidity, with steady inflows hinting it may be relatively undervalued.