XRP price has struggled to regain momentum in recent weeks, but fresh on-chain and technical signals suggest the coin may be quietly approaching an important turning point. Trading near $1.33 today, XRP remains trapped in a broader correction as market sentiment weakens and traders continue reacting to months of volatile price action.
However, beneath the surface, data is beginning to tell a different story. From historically extreme MVRV readings to fresh buy signals and improving derivatives activity, multiple indicators are now pointing toward one possibility: XRP price could be setting up for a surprise rebound heading into June.
XRP Traders Deep in Losses as Historic Rebound Signal Appears
XRP may be entering one of its most historically important zones in years. According to data by Santiment, XRP’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has fallen to its lowest level since December 2020, signaling that most short-term XRP traders are now deeply underwater. The analytics platform estimates that the average XRP trader active over the past month is currently down nearly 47%, a sharp deterioration that often reflects capitulation-like market behavior.
Historically, deeply negative MVRV readings have frequently aligned with periods of panic selling, when frustrated traders exit positions near local bottoms. In crypto markets, these moments often create conditions where downside momentum begins slowing while recovery opportunities quietly emerge.
While extreme fear does not guarantee an immediate reversal, historical XRP cycles suggest these deeply undervalued zones have often preceded stronger recovery phases.
Fresh Buy Signal Points to Potential XRP Recovery
Technical indicators are beginning to support the recovery narrative. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently highlighted that XRP has printed a TD Sequential buy signal on the 4-hour chart, an indicator commonly used to identify exhaustion in short-term downtrends. According to Martinez, XRP could see a rebound toward $1.35 if bulls stabilize price action and momentum begins rebuilding.
The signal arrives as XRP consolidates near short-term support instead of accelerating lower despite broader uncertainty across the crypto market. That behavior matters because consolidation after heavy selling often signals weakening bearish momentum.However, traders still need confirmation. A failed attempt to reclaim higher levels could delay bullish momentum and reinforce broader downside risks.
XRP now sits near an important short-term decision zone. Immediate resistance stands near $1.35, aligning with rebound expectations following the TD Sequential buy signal. A breakout above this level could strengthen bullish momentum toward $1.40–$1.45, where sellers previously regained control. On the downside, $1.30 remains immediate psychological support, while losing that level may expose XRP to deeper short-term weakness.
Rising Binance Activity Suggests Speculation Is Returning
Beyond on-chain and technical indicators, derivatives markets are beginning to show renewed activity. Fresh Binance perpetual market data reveals rising speculative momentum around XRP as trading activity starts moving above historical averages. Recent readings show XRP’s volume imbalance climbed near 0.54, while the Z-score approached 0.95, suggesting derivatives participation is increasing after an extended cooldown period.
In practical terms, the data indicates traders are gradually returning to XRP markets rather than abandoning risk completely. Higher speculative activity often emerges during transition phases when traders begin positioning for directional moves. Still, elevated leverage cuts both ways. If XRP fails to reclaim momentum, excessive speculation could amplify volatility through liquidation-driven price swings.
Can XRP Surprise Traders With a Rebound?
XRP’s current setup reflects a market caught between extreme fear and early recovery signals. Deep trader losses, historically low MVRV readings, and improving speculative activity suggest selling pressure may be approaching exhaustion. If bulls reclaim momentum above $1.35, a surprise rebound may no longer look unlikely, it could become the XRP’s next major setup.