As market pressure persists, investor behavior is becoming just as important as Bitcoin’s price action. According to recent on-chain data, newer Bitcoin [BTC] buyers are increasingly incurring losses rather than waiting for a recovery.
That trend is becoming much clearer. The 30-day average of Bitcoin sent to exchanges at a loss has climbed to 2,450 BTC.
Rather than reflecting routine profit-taking, the shift points to capitulation among investors who bought their coins between $75,000 and $126,000.
The pressure becomes even clearer as monthly realized losses reach a record $90 million. That figure exceeds previous capitulation phases. Moreover, it also suggests recent buyers are absorbing larger losses because they entered the market at much higher prices.
Even so, history shows capitulation often emerges near the later stages of market resets. That said, if Short-Term Holder SOPR, UTXOs in Loss, and the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio begin stabilizing, selling pressure could gradually ease.
Until then, weaker hands continue transferring Bitcoin to investors with stronger conviction.
Fresh demand rebuilds support
That transfer of supply is now beginning to reshape Bitcoin’s short-term holder structure. According to recent data, new buyers are stepping in at each opportunity to absorb the available supply rather than a second round of distribution from the STH base.
This trend is being displayed clearly within the area of price between $62,000 and $65,000, where a new cost basis was created when Bitcoin bounced from its low point at $57,000.
The increased demand for the area also lends support to the idea that this range is likely to provide near-term support for Bitcoin.
Although most of this growth was occurring at the end of the recovery period. Therefore, $66,000 represents the confirmation price point for investors to be confident they are in possession of a “new” cost basis for the asset.
If a strong price move breaks through $66,000, then it would likely strengthen the conviction that the upside momentum will continue.
Otherwise, failure to reclaim that level may prompt recent buyers to exit, reviving short-term selling pressure. For now, $66,000 remains the dividing line between continued accumulation and a potential local top.
That transfer of supply is now beginning to test Bitcoin’s recovery. With BTC trading around $64,700-$65,000, attention has shifted to the $66,000 resistance. The Sell-Side Risk Ratio continues declining, signaling growing seller exhaustion.
Meanwhile, apparent demand has improved from nearly -275,000 BTC to -172,960 BTC. This implies that fresh buying is gradually absorbing supply. Yet, neutral funding rates and range-bound Open Interest suggest stronger Spot demand is still needed to confirm a sustained recovery.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin seller exhaustion is rising, but $66,000 remains the key level for confirming a sustained recovery.
- Bitcoin demand is improving, though stronger Spot buying is still needed to validate a trend reversal.