Polymarket has officially launched 5-minute crypto price prediction contracts on the Polymarket US App. Shortlisted cryptocurrencies include Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP.
The app operates as a binary options market (up and down forecasts), with correct predictions paying out at $1 per contract.
To promote fairness, settlement is based on Chainlink’s 60-second Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP). By averaging the digital asset’s price in the last 60 seconds, the platform prevents last-second price manipulators and/or cheaters.
Additionally, any ties (price predicted is the same as the initial price) automatically resolve in the “up” position.
Polymarket’s re-entry into the US market
Initially, Polymarket launched in the US in 2020 but was forced to shut down in the country after it was fined $1.4 million for offering unregistered derivatives.
However, in July 2025, the platform acquired QCX LLC in a $112 million deal focused on re-entering the US market. The derivatives exchange came with an existing license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing it to replace the unregulated connection of Web3 digital wallets to Polymarket.
Earlier this month, Polymarket US introduced 15-minute, hourly, and daily contracts, with the latest ultra-short contract being today’s 5-minute debut.
Growth and competition
While Polymarket dominates the global events market space, Kalshi remains the lead in terms of US consumer volume. This is mainly because Kalshi launched legally in 2020, granting it a 5-year head start ahead of Polymarket. Kalshi has also focused on capturing deep institutional liquidity, building partnerships with the likes of Robinhood, Coinbase, and Webull. Even more, its contracts capture a wide variety of events, including sports, economic indicators, and weather.
By comparison, Polymarket’s contracts mostly cover crypto and pop-culture events. Its operations are also currently stand-alone, with users accessing the beta app on an invite-only basis.
And while both are federally regulated under the CFTC, states such as Nevada and Minnesota have completely blocked all prediction market platforms. Washington and Michigan have banned sports-related contract trading, while New York, Texas, and California are actively contesting prediction market operations.
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