Michael Saylor’s Strategy made a massive and surprising Bitcoin purchase in the last 24 hours, despite the overhang of the MSCI index exclusion review set for mid-January.
On 08 December, the firm announced that it had purchased 10,624 BTC, worth $962.7 million, at an average price of $90.6k.
Although the update was expected, following Saylor’s typical bid signal of “orange dots” over the weekend, the massive scale of the nearly $1 billion BTC acquisition came as a surprise.
In fact, on 6 December, the predictions market projected only a 26% chance of another 1000 BTC or more BTC bid by Strategy this week.
The latest 10.6k BTC buy is the second-largest scoop of H2 2025, bringing its overall stash to 660,624 BTC.
Source: CryptoQuant
For a firm under index exclusion risk after recently admitting to potentially selling BTC if the so-called mNAV dips below 1, this raises key questions.
Is the MSCI index overhang over? Are BTC selling plans discarded?
MSCI risk rises, but BTC sell-off odds fade
For the first question, the risk of being delisted from the index is still very high, according to Polymarket.
At the time of writing, betters on the platform were pricing a 73% chance of such an outcome by Q1 2026, reinforcing underlying jitters despite the nearly $1 billion BTC buy.
Source: Polymarket
Last week, reports surfaced that Michael Saylor met with the MSCI team regarding the exclusion issue and sought to persuade them not to remove his firm from the club.
He has maintained that such an exclusion “won’t make any difference.” On the contrary, JPMorgan analysts have warned of over $8 billion in outflows if MSCI delists it.
In the event of a potential Strategy BTC dump if mNAV dips below 1, such an outcome might be relatively low.
In fact, in Q1 2026, the odds of such an outcome was below 10%. Further in H1 2026, the odds of selling BTC were 17%, suggesting that market participants don’t expect Strategy to make such a move at this time.
Source: Polymarket
Here, it’s worth pointing out that the firm recently secured over $1.4 billion and established a fund to cover the obligations tied to dividends linked to its wide array of preferred stocks it uses to fund BTC buys.
The rest of its +$8 billion debt will begin maturing in 2028, giving it ample time to manoeuvre. Perhaps, this would explain the low expectations for the Strategy BTC dump in the mid-term.
However, any news of Strategy dumping BTC would decimate the market, RIA Advisors Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz warned. He cautioned,
“If there’s a headline that says Strategy sold, even if it’s three Bitcoin, I think after everything Michael Saylor has said about he’s never selling a dime, people are going to start to question the whole Bitcoin trade.”
Final Thoughts
- Michael Saylor made a surprise $962 million BTC purchase, raising hopes that the MSCI overhang may soon evaporate.
- Although the MSCI risk is still high, the odds of a BTC dump may be relatively low.