Fundstrat’s Tom Lee thinks March will be an “up month” for the stock market despite the geopolitical instability unleashed by the US and Israel’s airstrikes against Iran.
In a new interview with CNBC, Lee predicts that the worst of the war-related sell-off will happen this week.
“Nobody likes to see headlines and images of explosions and war, and so we know risk premium jumps – that’s why the VIX jumps. But it’s not really going to change the fundamentals of the US, so in the past, markets kind of sell off into the buildup, and then they tend to do better once the battle begins, and I think this is going to be similar.”
The VIX is the ticker for the CBOE Volatility Index, which uses options to gauge the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility for the S&P 500. It’s up more than 5% on Monday at time of writing.
Lee says the Magnificent 7 stocks and the software and crypto sectors all displayed “early weakness” and are in the final stages of bottoming or have already bottomed.
“At least in the case of the software stocks broadly, the entire complex has fallen back to where they were last April. To me, that’s clearly an overreaction.
So I think it makes sense that you’d start to see some of the groups that got hit hard mean revert, including the Mag 7.”
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