The CLARITY Act might be delayed until as late as 2030. Lawmakers have warned that if it does not pass before the August recess begins, there is an open-ended calendar on how far into the future the delays could stretch.
The delay in passing the CLARITY Act is due to the Senate being unable to agree on certain terms like anti money-laundering rules and stablecoin yield.
Can the CLARITY Act still pass before the August recess?
The long anticipated CLARITY Act might be delayed again due to the legislative calendar. The Senate is returning from its Memorial Day break in June, meaning the bill is now entering a crowded field of legislation that must pass and now faces a strict deadline before the August recess.
Lawmakers are stuck on parts of the act that address ethics, stablecoin yields, crime rules like anti money-laundering (AML) rules and protection for the DeFi industry.
According to the official Senate schedule, the chamber will be in session for four working weeks in June and three weeks in July before breaking for the summer from August 10 to September 11.
Analysts from Galaxy Digital and NYDIG agree that this nine-week window is the most realistic opportunity for passage this year.
Punchbowl News’ Jake Sherman reported Thursday that Senate Majority Leader John Thune told senators in a closed meeting the chamber will recess until June, leaving the reconciliation bill unfinished. “All because of the DOJ weaponization fund,” Sherman wrote. The House is expected to follow suit soon.
The host of Crypto in America Eleanor Terrett also said on X that the CLARITY Act is now “competing for floor time in June with reconciliation, FISA, as well as the housing bill that passed the House this week.”
Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is managing a schedule where the Senate must handle a budget reconciliation bill, the reauthorization of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), and housing legislation simultaneously.
CLARITY Act faces competition for the Senate’s time
The Senate is currently rewriting a budget reconciliation bill. Leader Thune is aiming to get this measure to the President’s desk by June 1, but procedural hurdles like the Byrd Rule violations have already forced rewrites regarding security funding.
The surveillance powers granted by FISA Section 702 are facing a critical deadline, which demands immediate attention from the Senate. The House also passed a housing bill this week, which is awaiting Senate action.
Greg Cipolaro, head of research at NYDIG, noted in a Friday report that scheduling delays alone could push the bill past the viable window. He suggested in a report that Senate leadership is “unlikely to schedule a contested 60-vote floor fight” in the fall when the midterm elections are scheduled to take over.
Could the crypto regulation be postponed to 2030?
The CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee in a 15-9 vote on May 14, but it still requires 60 votes on the floor to avoid being postponed unnecessarily.
Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn has placed a 75% chance on the bill becoming law in 2026, but he specifically warned that Congress is scheduled for a recess by August 10, and substantive legislation rarely advances during a midterm election cycle.
Senator Cynthia Lummis also previously warned that missing the pre-recess operational windows could cause a severe delay in creating a comprehensive crypto market structure until as late as 2030.
Polymarket currently places the odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 is down to 54%, after it rallied to 74% earlier in the month after starting May around 46%.