From 17th to 25th September, the Spot Bitcoin [BTC] ETF net flows totalled $2.88 billion. During this time period, BTC’s price rallied by 10.26%, including the dip from $87.3K to $82.9K earlier in the week.
Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands tightened in mid-September, when the price was consolidating around the $74K-$76K zone. Since then, however, the swift breakout past the $82.3K local highs has signaled another bullish expansion phase.
Exchange netflows negative despite short-term sentiment slump
The uptrend was unbroken, although a dip towards $80K-$82K could occur. The latest price dip was also due to U.S-Iran tensions.
Strong demand has turned year-to-date Spot ETF flows to Bitcoin positive, according to Galaxy Research data. A weekly session close above the previous May swing high at $82,850 will confirm a bullish trend shift on higher timeframes.
According to a recent AMBCrypto report, U.S Treasury intervention to control bond yields is seen as net inflationary. This could drive demand for scarce assets such as Bitcoin.
The $351.6 million Bitget crypto hack has also affected short-term market sentiment. Bitget claimed that its User Protection Fund exceeded the estimated losses though, and user funds will be protected.
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. drew attention to the direction of exchange Bitcoin flows. Despite the Bitget hack, the reaction on popular exchanges was a steady outflow of coins, likely for long-term accumulation.
From 22nd to 25th September, the cumulative net flow was a negative 31,400 BTC, worth around $2.6 billion. In fact, 12,500 BTC left exchanges in a single hour on 22nd September.
This highlighted a potential price-flow divergence. A bullish price reaction may be likely, although not guaranteed.
Long-term BTC holders in moderate profit zone
The selling pressure from long-term holders would likely not be considerably heated up. The LTH realized profit and loss metric was at 72% at press time. While it looked high, in December 2024, their profits reached nearly 350%.
On the contrary, the current LTH profit levels are now closer to bear market trends, observed crypto analyst Darkfost. Hence, a majority of LTHs are likely to wait a bit longer before selling, expecting further price gains.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin’s price dip could extend towards $80K, but minor correction was accompanied by steady BTC outflows from exchanges.
- Long-term holder realized profits seemed to be in line with bear market levels.