The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, October 29, 2025, following the two-day FOMC meeting (Oct 28–29). The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range down to 3.75%–4.00%, driven by easing inflation and slower economic growth.
Markets are currently pricing in a 96.7% probability of a rate cut, according to futures data. Traders are also expecting another 25 bps reduction in December, with a 95% implied probability. However, the real focus will be on Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, where he could hint at the Fed’s 2026 policy outlook.
Crypto Markets are bracing for heightened volatility as the FOMC outcome nears. The rate cut is already priced in; others say Powell’s comments could still trigger significant market reactions, especially in risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Correction Before Rally?
Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating near the $113,000–$115,000 range. If the Fed signals a hawkish tone or keeps rates unchanged longer than expected, Bitcoin could face a short-term correction toward $104,000, with the possibility of a deeper retracement near $92,000.
On the other hand, a dovish policy shift may trigger a renewed rally toward $120,000 and beyond.
Two Short-Term Scenarios Are Currently in Play for BTC
- Scenario 1 – Continuation with Pullback (Red Path):
Bitcoin trades slightly higher into Wednesday’s decision, leaving a CME Futures gap unfilled. Post-FOMC, a sharp reversal could occur to fill the gap, testing the midrange near $109K–$110K before stabilizing. - Scenario 2 – Retracement Then Rally (Green Path):
Bitcoin fills the CME Futures gap before the FOMC meeting, setting up a reversal higher after the announcement. This scenario opens the door for a potential new all-time high in November.
With a 98% chance of a Fed rate cut on Wednesday, analysts believe this may mark the beginning of another “buy the dip” season for BTC.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction: Range-Bound Before Fed Moves
Ethereum remains largely range-bound, mirroring Bitcoin’s cautious price action. ETH has been consolidating around the $6,000 zone, with limited momentum as traders await macro clarity.
A dovish tone from Powell could lift ETH toward $6,800–$7,000, while a hawkish stance could trigger a pullback toward $5,700–$5,800 before renewed buying interest.
Short-term volatility is likely to increase during the FOMC announcement (Wednesday, 2:00 PM ET) and Powell’s press conference that follows.
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XRP Price Prediction: Sideways but Poised for a Breakout
XRP continues to trade sideways, showing low volatility ahead of the Fed decision. Traders say XRP’s next move will largely depend on Bitcoin’s reaction post-FOMC.
If Bitcoin rebounds from support, XRP could break out toward its next resistance levels, while a broader market correction might push it lower to retest short-term supports.
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FAQs
The FOMC is the Fed’s policy-setting committee. Its decisions on interest rates influence the entire economy, driving risk appetite in assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Rate cuts make borrowing cheaper, often boosting riskier investments like crypto. Hikes can have the opposite effect, pulling money into safer, interest-bearing assets.
Analysts see two main scenarios: a brief pullback to fill a price gap or a continuation of the rally toward new highs, depending on the Fed’s tone.
Trading before high-volatility events like FOMC is risky. Many traders wait for the announcement and market reaction to establish a clearer direction.
The Fed’s interest rate decision is scheduled for 2:00 PM Eastern Time on Wednesday, October 29, 2025, followed by a press conference.
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