Cycle scientist Lars Von Thienen says global liquidity, an important driver of asset prices, is losing momentum. He tracks liquidity from the U.S., China, and Europe, and his data shows it is still growing but at a slower pace. This shift means the easy money that supported markets since 2023 is starting to fade.
He explained that global liquidity now mostly fuels debt refinancing rather than risk assets. With the U.S. Federal Reserve tightening policy, it will be harder for liquidity to grow at the same speed through late 2025 and into 2026.
Bitcoin’s Growth Cycle Is Peaking
In an interview with Paul Barron, Von Thienen describes Bitcoin as a reflection of global liquidity. Around 40% of Bitcoin’s price, he said, comes from liquidity conditions. Based on current data, he believes the uptrend that began in 2023 is reaching its peak.
That does not mean Bitcoin will crash right away, but the market may not see the strong price expansion it had earlier in the cycle. As liquidity cools, the pace of growth will likely slow across most risk assets, including crypto.
No Altcoin Season This Time
Von Thienen says traders waiting for another altcoin season will likely be disappointed. He says no major rotation into altcoins will happen this cycle. Instead of flowing into smaller coins, new liquidity is moving into real-world markets and industries.
Altcoins usually rally after Bitcoin peaks, but this time, he says the setup is different. Capital is more cautious, and global liquidity is not expanding fast enough to fuel another wave of speculation.
A Possible Downturn in 2026
His analysis points to a new downcycle in global liquidity starting around the second quarter of 2026 and lasting until the end of the year. This phase could bring weaker markets for both Bitcoin and altcoins as conditions tighten further.
Von Thienen expects money to shift toward productive sectors instead of speculative ones. For crypto investors, that could mean a longer period of sideways or falling prices before the next cycle begins.
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