Key Takeaways
Altcoin Season Index hits 76, DOGE/BTC rallies, and BTC.D prints lower lows. Will the index defy the 2024 cycle?
Beyond macro risks, a major headwind to Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has been the altcoin market. On paper, BTC is reclaiming back-to-back resistance levels, the latest around $112k.
And yet, BTC.D hasn’t recovered 60% of inflows, printing a red weekly candle. Meanwhile, TOTAL2 (market cap ex-BTC) is up 3.58%, showing capital is still chasing high-beta alts.
The result? The Altcoin Season Index jumped 13% to 76 in a single day, officially signaling the first full-blown altseason since the election run.
This also underscores the persistent risk-off behavior in BTC flows.
Source: Blockchaincenter
Simply put, traders are chasing outsized upside outside of Bitcoin.
Case in point: Dogecoin [DOGE]. While Ethereum [ETH] is hitting a wall, with the ETH/BTC ratio failing at 0.04 resistance, DOGE/BTC ratio is ripping nearly 10% in less than two weeks, eyeing the 0.0000024 ceiling.
Interestingly, the current market cycle mirrors the previous election run, memecoin mania is surging, BTC.D is slipping, and ETH/BTC remains capped.
Given how the Altcoin Season Index broke out in 2024 during similar conditions, could we be witnessing a repeat performance?
Traders, why caution is warranted!
During the election cycle, BTC.D posted its worst weekly run in two years.
The Altcoin Season Index hit 88 by early December, dragging BTC.D down 10% to 54% in the same stretch. However, when BTC.D bounced back to 65% by mid-June, the Altcoin Season Index had crashed to 12.
Alts got wrecked as overstretched positions blew up. Fast-forward to now, Coinalyze shows Bitcoin Open Interest (OI) dominance at 38%, meaning alt leverage is running 50% higher than BTC, setting up a crowded playbook.
Source: TradingView (BTC.D)
In short, the Altcoin Season Index is flirting with another blow-off top.
But there’s a key divergence: BTC.D has posted two lower lows since its 65% peak. Unlike the election cycle, when capital rotated back into Bitcoin [BTC], alt inflows continue to climb, keeping BTC.D under pressure.
Why does this matter? According to AMBCrypto, investors are staying away from Bitcoin, keeping it locked in a chop.
As long as this pattern holds, the Altcoin Season Index stays in focus and could challenge its 88 top.