Key Takeaways
Is Bitcoin nearing the end of its bull run?
No, data shows signs of more room to grow.
Can negative Funding Rates predict the next Bitcoin rally?
Recent history shows Bitcoin often surges after funding rates turn negative.
97% of Bitcoin [BTC] supply was in profit, and short-term holders (STHs) have been in the spotlight. While prices seem stretched, on-chain data showed the market might still have more room to grow.
So, is this the beginning of the end… or just the start of the final push?
The signs are glaring
The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) metric was at +0.52, at press time, a level that is usually where the transition from optimism to full-blown euphoria takes place.
In past cycles like 2017 and 2021, this zone has been linked to peak bullish sentiment… and major price rallies.
Source: CryptoQuant
With 97% of the Bitcoin supply in profit, investor confidence remained high. But this also means the market is getting crowded, and any further upside may need some consolidation first to stay sustainable.
New whales take the wheel
STHs now make up 44% of Bitcoin’s Realized Cap, a record high. This shift shows that LTHs are taking profits while new market entrants are stepping in with serious buying power.
Source: CryptoQuant
Normally, this transfer of control happens near the final leg of a bull run. But this time might be different.
Strong ETF inflows, growing stablecoin liquidity, and institutional buyers are absorbing the sell pressure, creating a more stable kind of euphoria.
The next big sign to watch? A drop in STH dominance could bring in a new wave of long-term accumulation.
The spark behind big rallies
Here’s where things get interesting.
Every time Funding Rates on Binance turn negative, Bitcoin tends to rebound – and the pattern is repeating. Negative funding usually shows that traders are leaning bearish, creating perfect conditions for a contrarian rally.
Source: CryptoQuant
The last few times this happened – in October 2023, September 2024, and April 2025 – BTC quickly shot up from $28K to $73K, $57K to $108K, and $95K to $123K, respectively.
With Funding Rates dipping again and prices stabilizing near $115K, the next big move could once again surprise the bears.