A Democratic sweep of Congress would end the CLARITY Act’s chances for the next two years and sour the political climate for crypto, TD Cowen’s Washington analyst Jaret Seiberg wrote to Bitcoin Magazine and clients in an election-day note.
Seiberg wrote that TD Cowen agrees with polls and prediction markets that Democrats are likely to take both chambers, with the caveat that polls taken a month out, which were more mixed, tend to beat those taken on the eve of a vote.
His conclusion for crypto is blunt: “Democrats will likely investigate Trump including his crypto entanglements. We see this as souring the political environment for crypto, which is why we do not expect the Clarity Act to pass over the next two years.”
The market structure bill passed the House 294-134 in July 2025 and failed a Senate cloture vote 49-50 on Sept. 15. If it does not pass before the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3, it dies and must be reintroduced.
Seiberg added that crypto’s influence may shrink further in Congress if Sherrod Brown wins his Ohio Senate race, a contest the industry spent to lose.
In Congress, the Senate is the lever
The note treats Senate control as the bigger prize. A Democratic majority could block Trump’s nominees and use that power to force him to fill Democratic seats on the FDIC, SEC and CFTC, the three agencies at the center of crypto policy.
It could pressure the White House to drop its effort to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve board. Trump could answer with acting chiefs, Seiberg wrote, but that risks handing authority to career staff, an outcome “Team Trump” does not want.
Senate control would elevate Sen. Elizabeth Warren to chair the Banking Committee. Seiberg sees room for populist bills such as interest rate caps, limits on bank buybacks and a government credit score, and he thinks Warren and Trump could find common ground on some of them.
Rep. Maxine Waters would take House Financial Services, with a focus on housing and tighter scrutiny of the FHFA.
“That means a focus on housing though we are dubious that she will find GOP support for down payment help and public housing renovations. FHFA scrutiny will increase,” the note read.
For banks, the note says the election changes little: regulators will keep easing capital, liquidity and tiering rules whichever party wins. Divided government does raise the odds of a shutdown or a debt-ceiling standoff, since Trump is expected to reject spending conditions Democrats attach.
Bitcoin on election day
Bitcoin traded near $77,500 Tuesday afternoon eastern time, up from a dip to $76,300 in the morning and about $2,000 below where it opened the month. The price has absorbed a record $6.34 billion Binance hack, two days of spot ETF outflows and a Fed that is leaning toward a December hike.
Prediction markets on Kalshi give Democrats a 94% chance at the House and 74% at the Senate, so much of Seiberg’s scenario is in the price.
What is not priced is the lame-duck session. Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, a CLARITY negotiator, has said the bill could pass before January even if a Democratic Congress would not make it a priority after. That said, if it fails during that window, she doubts a Democratic-controlled Congress will make it a priority in the future.
According to various reports, crypto groups have spent more than $200 million on the cycle to avoid the outcome Seiberg now expects. The CFTC, for its part, moved without Congress on Tuesday, clearing equity perpetual futures for U.S. exchanges. If the Senate and Congress flips, that agency-by-agency approach, and who sits on those agencies, becomes the whole game.