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Home»Bitcoin»Why Bitcoin’s $707 billion loss overhang means its recovery will take months
Bitcoin

Why Bitcoin’s $707 billion loss overhang means its recovery will take months

November 3, 2026No Comments2 Mins Read
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Losses have been dominating the world’s leading crypto’s market cap lately. In fact, roughly $707 billion invested in Bitcoin [BTC] were at a loss at press time, compared to only $380 billion in profits.

Bitcoin Invested Capital Profit LossBitcoin Invested Capital Profit Loss
Source: Darkfost on X

The metric was aggregated daily and gave an average of the capital currently held in loss or profit on Bitcoin spot positions.

According to the analyst Darkfost, it could take a long while for Bitcoin to battle past the capital in loss. Time is an important factor when coming out of a bear market. The market will take several months to put most of the capital back in profit.

It is at that stage that a market expansion, or a bull run, can gather steam and get going.

Bitcoin sentiment under assault

On 2nd November, AMBCrypto reported that Brazilian exchange Mercado Bitcoin halted transfers in response to a security incident that drained $40 million. It came just days after the Binance heist.

The exchange has since resumed withdrawals, and deposits remained unaffected. The sentiment is still highly pessimistic though. Especially since BTC’s price hit a low of $76,541 on Monday, 2nd November.

The $75K-demand zone, which coincided with the short-term holder cost basis level, has also emerged as a key support level that swing traders and long-term investors will be watching.

Active Bitcoin addresses decline considerably

Bitcoin Active AddressesBitcoin Active Addresses
Source: Axel Adler Jr. Insights

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. also observed that the 30-day average of active addresses was at 629k, 43% below December’s 2024 peak of 1.10 million addresses.

Similarly, in 2018, the active addresses fell by 50% from 1.10 million to 547K over a period of three months. This, compared to the almost two-year activity contraction from 2024.

See also  SUI Price Tests Crucial Support—Can Bulls Trigger a 25% Recovery Rally?
Bitcoin Transfer VolumeBitcoin Transfer Volume
Source: Axel Adler Jr. Insights

While active addresses fell, the 30-day average of Bitcoin daily transfer volume was down only 5.4% compared to December 2024, from 865K to 819K BTC.

While activity has shrunk considerably, the coins moved on-chain remained comparable.


Final Summary

  • Around twice as much of the capital invested in Bitcoin was at a loss ($707 billion), than in profit ($380 billion).
  • Active addresses shrunk considerably, but BTC moved on-chain remained is now comparable to December 2024’s levels.

 

Billion Bitcoins Loss Means Months Overhang Recovery
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