Bitcoin’s slide toward the $77,553 low has turned paper losses into real losses for many holders. This was evident immediately after the 29th of October shock, when realized profits sat at $464.09 million compared to realized losses of $300.66 million.
The reluctance to sell seemed to give way by the 30th to 31st of October. This was when the price dropped below $80,000. Over those two days, the number of realized losses increased to $1.115 billion.
This represents an increase of more than double the amount of realized profit of $519.15 million.
These increasing differences are indicative of holders who feel compelled to sell their holdings to prevent additional losses. Once they do so, they will add supply and increase the downward pressure on the price of Bitcoin [BTC].
Selling can also help remove weaker market participants from the equation. If further declines continue and put additional downward pressure on demand.
As a result, it could lead to a challenge for demand at the Short Term Holder’s (STH) realized price, which is currently around $75,913.
STH deepens Bitcoin’s selling pressure
That pressure from STH’s is now directed towards recent buyers, who are sending coins to exchanges as losses continue to grow. Over 36,600 BTC were sent to exchanges from STHs within 24 hours.
This represents one of the largest amounts in terms of weekly flow back into exchanges in October.
This data indicates an increasing sense of urgency for holders to reposition in anticipation of lower prices. Yet Bitcoin is trading well above the $76,400 – $76,500 cost basis for those investors who purchased 1-3 months ago.
CryptoQuant analyst Theophiluspep noted that these same investors were left with unrealized gains ranging from 1% to 2%. As such, these investors would need to see substantial declines in order to realize negative returns on their investment.
Long-term holders limit Bitcoin’s selling pressure
At current, though, it appears that recent buyers are not indicating a willingness to participate in widespread selling within the entire investor base.
Long-term holders have maintained their exchange deposit activity at relatively modest levels, and we’re seeing minimal increases in dormant coin flows.
Pressure from recent buyers (potential for short-term selling) is currently low across the overall investor base. Long-term holders don’t seem to be increasing exchange deposits or reducing their dormancy because older investors haven’t been selling on a wide scale.
Spot activity around $77,500 will likely be crucial in determining whether or not it holds at the $76,400-$76,500 level. Altogether, without sufficient demand, continued selling could push BTC below recent buyers’ cost basis and deepen the correction.
Final Summary
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Bitcoin recorded $1.1 billion in realized losses as short-term holders accelerated loss-driven exchange deposits.
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BTC’s $76,400–$76,500 support faces a critical test as long-term holders limit selling and spot demand remains essential.