A major Wall Street firm is including Bitcoin (BTC) in its annual long-term capital market assumptions report for the first time.
JPMorgan Asset Management says it expects BTC to grow 10% per year over the next 10 years, with an arithmetic return of 20.9% and annualized volatility of 55%.
Meanwhile, the firm expects US large cap to surge 7.50%, US small cap to climb 7.70%, and gold to rise 5.50% per year over the same period.
JPMorgan highlights a big caveat: Bitcoin is still maturing.
“At the moment, we do not make a case for Bitcoin (BTC) as a diversifier in portfolios due to its unstable market correlations. We see Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing… BTC mostly trades like a high-beta risk asset that tracks global money supply growth, but it is sometimes treated as ‘digital gold.’ Unstable correlations with other assets present a modeling hurdle. A further challenge is forecasting an asset whose fundamentals are not cash flows and whose economics may be as much about adoption, regulation and liquidity as technology.”
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan reacts on X to the development.
“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you’ll be the best-performing asset of the next decade.”
He added that despite the caveats, it remains notable.
“I know, I know: They have loads of caveats and say the asset is still maturing. Nonetheless, it’s pretty amazing to see.”
The inclusion marks a notable step for Bitcoin in institutional forecasting even as the report emphasizes its evolving status.
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