Bitcoin (BTC) is holding firm above key levels despite strong US payrolls data that boosted Federal Reserve rate-hike odds.
Wintermute says August payrolls printed 162,000 against a 53,000 consensus, lifting September hike odds near 60%.
Bitcoin reached $82,400 before pulling back but still closed last week above $80,000, up 3.45%. The crypto market maker also notes that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $987 million in inflows last week for a third straight positive week, nearing $3.8 billion over the run, while Ethereum ETFs added $215 million over the same time frame.
According to Wintermute, investor capital is rotating from exhausted equities and consolidating gold into BTC and ETH.
“Crypto held a hot payrolls print that equities and duration didn’t, and the money that left gold and stalled equities showed up in BTC and ETH. That is the equity exhaustion we’ve been waiting on as the precondition for a new cycle.”
Bitcoin’s roughly 50% drawdown from peak is shallower than the 75%+ seen in 2018 and 2022 at similar points, consistent with earlier institutional participation via ETFs.
“Breadth is improving and profits from one cohort are funding the next, which is how a young cycle looks. It breaks when a rotation lands on a cohort that doesn’t lift or the majors roll over without a new leader…
Glass half full. We’d revise on a clean break below $72,000 with ETF outflows turning meaningfully negative, faster if CPI pushes hike odds through 70%.”
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