Veteran trader Peter Brandt sees bitcoin rallying to $250,000 in 2029, but only after the market finishes a long drawn-out bottoming process that could last into September 2026.
That forecast makes sense in the context of bitcoin’s four-year mining reward halving cycle, which has been consistent enough to shape traders’ projections.
Historically, bitcoin bull runs have peaked roughly 16 to 18 months after the quadrennial mining reward halving, before sliding into year-long bear markets. New uptrends then tend to begin 12 to 18 months ahead of the next halving.
That pattern held in the most recent cycle, with bitcoin peaking in October 2025, roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving, which cut the per-block BTC issued as reward to miners to 3.125 from 6.25.
If the cycle holds, the bear market that began then should bottom about a year later, around October 2026 and then a new uptrend should begin that could take top out at $250,000 in late 2029, again roughly 18 months after the April 2028 halving.
“I am not calling for a low until Sep/Oct 2026. It is not necessary for the recent low to be penetrated. We could get a rally and then chop sideways to down. Worst case would be a move back into the lower green banana peel which would be into the 50s, maybe high 40s. Then blast off for $250k and a high in late 2029,” Brandt told CoinDesk in an email.
Peter Brandt is a veteran commodities trader whose career spans nearly five decades, beginning in the 1970s in the futures markets. He started out trading traditional assets such as agricultural commodities, metals, and currencies, long before the rise of modern electronic trading or digital assets.
Brandt’s view contrasts with the consensus among crypto analysts, who argue that the downtrend that began with the October peak near $126,000 ended in early February around $60,000, and that the rally since then marks the start of a new uptrend.
Bitcoin has rallied over 25% to $80,300 since early February, CoinDesk data show.
Note that Brandt’s forecast of no bottom until later this year does not necessarily imply a deeper downtrend that pushes prices below the February low. As he has noted, prices could instead move in a choppy pattern of rallies and pullbacks before eventually forming a bottom.
Brandt, however, stressed that his projection depends entirely on the market continuing to follow its historical rhythm. If price action deviates, he’s prepared to reassess rather than defend a broken thesis.
“As long as the market follows the script I will stay with my projections. If at some point the price discovery moves off script I will be forced to revise all my thinking. I will NOT be dogmatic about it as some are,” he said.