Since the U.S.-Israel war with Iran began in late February, Bitcoin has traded in a tight range of $65K-$73K. The resilience has extended to Ethereum and the broader altcoin market as the war drags on.
Commenting on the same in their weekly market update, Coinbase analysts, led by David Duong, noted that the panic sell-off across Bitcoin [BTC] and Ethereum [ETH] that was prevalent in February has dropped significantly.
Citing the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a metric which tracks whether short-term holders (STH) are selling at a loss or profit, Coinbase added,
An upturn in STH SOPR for BTC and ETH beginning in late February suggests spot demand has recently been strong enough to absorb countervailing selling pressure, indicating more resilient market positioning.
Duong added that panic sell-offs or capitulations always set the stage for a reset in spot positioning and a potential sustainable recovery.
Bitcoin panic sell-off drops by 87%
A similar sentiment was shared by Bitfinex analysts, who highlighted that the daily BTC sell-off at a loss has dropped significantly from $3 billion to $370 million – An 87% decline in selling pressure.
The analysts added,
The cohort willing to sell at a discount has largely exhausted itself. ETF flows this week will show whether fresh demand steps in or the range just tightens further.
So far this week, Spot BTC ETFs have recorded daily net inflows of $167 million and $250 million on Monday and Tuesday, respectively.
If the inflows streak extends throughout the week, perhaps, bulls may attempt a breakout above $73K. Otherwise, the sideways structure may extend as Bitfinex analysts projected.
What’s next for BTC?
Well, the outlook was reinforced by the price charts. Losing the mid-range of the Bollinger Bands would likely send BTC to $65K or $66K. The price could drop even further if the upcoming U.S-China talks don’t yield a positive outcome for energy markets and the West Asian crisis.
A MACD death cross and losing the RSI’s neutral level could be the tell-tale signs for potential extra losses that could drag BTC lower. In fact, according to Coinbase, a sustained recovery could only be feasible if BTC clears the $73K resistance.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin’s daily sell-off has declined significantly, by 87% from $3 billion to $370 million.
- Bitfinex analysts believe that a fall in pressure could set the stage for a sustainable recovery, but only if ETF flows remain green.