The crypto market is watching October closely as the SEC faces deadlines for multiple ETF applications, including XRP ETFs. Analysts say an approval could trigger a “supply shock” in XRP’s market, where available tokens on exchanges are already at historic lows. Coinbase’s XRP inventory, for example, has fallen nearly 90 percent in recent months and now sits near 100 million tokens.
Why an ETF Could Shift the Market
Spot ETFs must hold the underlying asset. That means institutional funds would need to purchase XRP directly from the market to back shares. With retail investors typically holding XRP for the long term rather than trading it actively, analysts believe institutions will need to pay higher prices to convince holders to sell. Some estimate that $5 to $8 billion could flow into XRP ETFs in the first month alone, dwarfing early inflows seen in Bitcoin ETFs.
Understanding XRP’s Price Behaviour
Jake Claver said that upcoming ETF approvals could trigger a rotation of liquidity from Bitcoin into altcoins such as XRP, Solana, Litecoin, and Hedera. He explained that most retail investors hold XRP for the long term rather than trading it, which keeps supply on exchanges limited. If institutions begin buying XRP to back ETFs, prices will need to rise to persuade holders to sell.
Many investors bought XRP at levels between 20 cents and $3, and they are unlikely to part with their tokens unless the price reaches $10, $25, or even higher. This setup could create a supply shock once demand from ETFs takes off. Claver added that inflows of $5 to $8 billion in the first 30 days are possible, far more than Bitcoin saw at its ETF launch. With stablecoin projects, CBDCs, and Ripple’s partnerships also in motion, the timeline and catalysts are converging for a major move.
Catalysts Beyond the ETF
ETF approval is not the only driver. Ripple’s ongoing partnerships with banks, stablecoin projects, and potential CBDC pilots add utility to the XRP Ledger. Countries like Palau, Montenegro, and Brazil are already testing XRP for digital currencies, while companies are exploring treasury allocations in the asset. Analysts say these developments, combined with ETF demand, could create simultaneous institutional and retail FOMO.