Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas says Bitcoin has entered the final stage of its current four-year cycle, but warned that the market may still need another leg lower before a durable cycle bottom is in place.
In his latest “4-Year Journey” update, published on June 4, Loukas framed Bitcoin’s recent retest of its February lows as a largely expected development rather than a break from historical cycle behavior. He argued that Bitcoin’s rebound into May, when price approached the low-$80,000 range after a decline toward $60,000 in February, looked like a countertrend move inside a broader bear-market structure.
“A cycle very rarely, and I mean less than 10%, probably more like 5%, will end very early and also on the first significant decline from the high,” Loukas said. “There’s always a retest. There’s generally always a lower low, at least one lower low, if not a second lower low.”
Loukas said Bitcoin peaked in October and later broke below its 10-month moving average, which he treats as confirmation that the prior cycle advance had ended. The subsequent decline into February, he said, was followed by a natural relief rally that pulled in bulls expecting a rapid continuation toward the prior highs. That rally stalled near $83,000, close to the $85,000 area he had expected, before Bitcoin reversed and dropped roughly 25% back toward the February lows.
Loukas Begins Reaccumulating Bitcoin
Despite maintaining that Bitcoin may not have completed its cycle low, Loukas said his model portfolio has made its first buy action in three and a half years. The portfolio added 10 BTC at the $65,000 level, bringing its allocation to roughly 58% Bitcoin and 41% cash. He stressed that the move was not a call that the bottom is already in, but rather an attempt to begin reaccumulating at more favorable long-term levels.
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The key level now, according to Loukas, is $53,000. He said that if Bitcoin reaches that area, the model portfolio would use its remaining cash to return to a full Bitcoin allocation. The level matters because it roughly corresponds to the midpoint of the broader four-year cycle structure.
“Currently, what I’m thinking is the best strategy, and this is always subject to change, is that at the $53,000 level, all cash that remains to buy the remaining Bitcoin and get back to a 100% allocation,” Loukas said. “At the $53,000 level, we’re tagging the midpoint of the entire four-year cycle.”
He acknowledged that $53,000 may appear severe, but argued it is not extreme in Bitcoin terms. From the current area, he said, such a move would be only around another 15% lower, while Bitcoin had already fallen about $20,000 in the prior two to three weeks. He also noted that past bear markets produced much larger drawdowns, including a 77% peak-to-trough decline in the 2021–2022 cycle, compared with the current drawdown of roughly 51% to 52%.
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Loukas said a 65% to 70% drawdown would not be a prediction, but “shouldn’t become a surprise” given Bitcoin’s historical volatility. A move to $53,000, by his estimate, would amount to a roughly 57% decline from the cycle high.
Final Cycle Window Opens
Loukas did allow for a more bullish scenario. He said the current retest creates the first credible possibility of a shorter four-year cycle low, potentially forming as a double bottom before a base into late summer and a later push above the May highs. He assigned that outcome a relatively low probability of around 25%.
His base case remains that Bitcoin’s cycle low should form closer to the traditional window around October or November, with December also possible. Loukas said Bitcoin is now in month 43 of the cycle, entering the broad zone in which four-year lows typically emerge around the 47- to 48-month average.
“The window has been hit,” Loukas said. “The four-year cycle now is getting close or getting towards an end. But as I mentioned before, this is not any different to prior cycles.”
For the near term, Loukas said Bitcoin is oversold enough to bounce, possibly toward the 10-week moving average around $73,000, before resuming lower. He also argued that Bitcoin should not trade back above the May high near $83,000 to $85,000 over the next several months unless a new cycle has already begun.
At press time, BTC traded at $62,247.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com