US PPI Jumps 6.3% As Bitcoin Price Risks Dropping Below $80K

Despite heavy bearish sentiment across social media on Thursday, Bitcoin’s broader structure remains intact. BTC is trading near $81,000, still about 40% above its cycle low of $58,000. The current pullback fits the pattern of a routine correction after a strong upward run, not the start of a deeper breakdown. The decline came as hotter-than-expected US CPI and PPI data lifted the odds of an October Federal Reserve rate hike to 54%, while South Korea’s KOSPI closed 7.57% lower and more than $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated. On-chain data also shows large holders adding to positions at lower levels as retail investors sell, a shift that has often appeared near local bottoms.

Large Bitcoin holders have started rebuilding their positions at lower prices, while smaller retail investors continue to sell, on-chain data shows. The shift follows a period in which whale selling added to the recent decline that pushed BTC below $81,000. Those same large wallets have since repurchased coins at discounted levels, absorbing supply that retail traders are releasing into the market. The pattern suggests bigger players may be using the weakness to accumulate while smaller holders exit on fear. Bitcoin has come under pressure this week after US inflation data came in hotter than expected and Asian equity markets suffered heavy losses. A sustained transfer of coins from retail to whale wallets has often preceded price stabilisation in earlier market cycles.

US producer prices rose 6.3% year on year in September, well above the 5.3% forecast and the fastest pace in almost four years. On a monthly basis, PPI climbed 1.3%, more than double the 0.6% estimate. Core PPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.7% for the month and 5.0% annually, against forecasts of 0.3% and 4.4%. Other data showed weaker underlying demand. Retail sales grew 0.8%, but control group sales rose only 0.1%, suggesting higher fuel and car prices drove most of the gain. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell to 20.9 from 37.8, while jobless claims held at 199,000. Market-implied odds of a rate hike on October 28 have jumped to 54% from 20.7% after this week’s inflation data.

Bitcoin dropped to $80,400 on Thursday, clearing the previous week’s low and a key pool of sell-side liquidity resting at that level. The sweep shifts focus to how price reacts from here. On the upside, $83,000 is the first area where sellers could step back in if a retest fails. A stronger rejection zone sits near $85,000, just above a cluster of buy-side liquidity. On the downside, heavy liquidity sits below the $80,100 low. A break under that level could extend the decline into the $77,000 to $80,000 range before buyers attempt a reversal. That zone is the more attractive area for fresh long positions, with confirmation needed before calling a bottom.

XRP’s expected push higher has been invalidated after the token extended its correction. XRP is trading near $1.30, down 5.9% over 24 hours and 7.7% over the past week, as hotter-than-expected US inflation data weighed on the broader crypto market. The chart now points to a deeper corrective phase rather than a direct continuation upward. The longer the pullback stretches, the more likely a larger three-leg ABC correction becomes. Even in that scenario, the structure still favours an eventual move above XRP’s recent high of $1.70 once the correction completes. The $1.20 area, roughly 8% below current levels, stands out as a key support zone for spot accumulation.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, argues that bitcoin ends up higher whichever way the economy goes. Bitwise sells crypto products, so the view comes from a firm with a stake in the outcome. In a memo, Hougan walks through scenarios including AI superabundance, an AI bubble bursting, steady growth, and Fed rate hikes or holds. He expects a bubble burst to bring a government bailout, which he puts at nearly 100% likely, and then a sharp bitcoin rally. He admits the route can be rough. Bitcoin fell 50% in days during the early 2020 Covid panic before rising about twentyfold.

Trading volume in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) dropped to 22.6 million shares last Friday, the lowest for a full trading session since November 25, 2005, according to The Kobeissi Letter. Excluding sessions near market holidays, it was the thinnest trading day for the fund since October 11, 2004. SPY is the largest and most actively traded exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500. Unusually low volume before a major data release can mean investors were holding back, and markets can move more sharply when positions are adjusted all at once. That pattern played out this week. The S&P 500 went on to post its worst day since July 29 after the September CPI report.

Ether long positions worth more than $106 million were liquidated on Binance within one hour after US inflation data came in above forecasts, the largest such episode on the exchange in six months, according to on-chain researcher Darkfost. ETH has fallen about 7% since the release, from roughly $2,500 to near $2,350. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% month on month in September, ahead of the 0.5% consensus and August’s 0.4%. Darkfost said that futures volumes are now nine times larger than spot volumes, which makes price swings sharper when sentiment shifts. Market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike have risen from 17% to nearly 30% over the week, adding pressure on leveraged traders.

Optimism about Bitcoin among market forecasters has climbed to its strongest level since August 2025, according to on-chain data firm CryptoQuant. Of 164 market experts tracked, 84% now hold a bullish view on BTC, up sharply from 37% in July. CryptoQuant said the current reading is higher than at the comparable stage of the 2023 bull market, when Bitcoin had completed roughly half of its price gain. The data contrasts with recent price action. BTC is trading near $80,800, down 3.8% over 24 hours, after hotter-than-expected US inflation figures and a 9% plunge in South Korea’s KOSPI triggered a broad risk-off move. High bullish consensus during price weakness can signal either strong dip-buying demand or crowded positioning.

Bitcoin’s latest decline came on falling volume and cleared a large pool of liquidity at the bottom of its new trading range, a setup that often precedes a recovery. The 4-hour chart also shows a bullish divergence, with the Relative Strength Index forming higher lows while price makes lower ones. If BTC slips further, $80,100 is the next level to watch for a swing failure reversal, followed by the 1.238 Fibonacci extension at $79,400. The broader range looks corrective, given its choppy and extended sideways structure. If that reading holds, the correction could end by late October, opening the way for a new high above $88,000 around mid-November. A fresh low before 2027 would weaken the bullish outlook.

Bitcoin is trading near $81,000, a level that places it in the lower portion of a price channel it has followed for about eight years. The channel’s lower boundary rises to $107,000 by late 2027, while a move to $240,000 would sit between its second and third bands. Pseudonymous trader DD said BTC remains in a downtrend after falling through last week’s low and reversing an earlier short squeeze. The trader said that heavy liquidity sits just below current prices, alongside a retest of a key demand zone where a higher low could form. Short sellers are growing more aggressive, DD said, and could fuel a squeeze if they become trapped.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co reported record third-quarter net profit of NT$763.1 billion, or about $23.59 billion, up 69% from a year earlier on strong demand for AI processors. The result beat the NT$746.3 billion consensus forecast. The earnings came on the same day South Korean chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix lost more than 11% and 12% respectively, as concerns grew over the pace of AI infrastructure spending and debt at cloud providers.

South Korea’s financial regulator said it will hold an emergency meeting on the stock market after the KOSPI fell 9.00% intraday on Thursday to 5,467.66. Samsung Electronics dropped more than 11%, while SK Hynix extended its losses past 12% to its lowest level since April 27. The index has now fallen about 40% from its record high on June 19, according to The Kobeissi Letter. Earlier in the session, a circuit breaker stopped trading after the index fell 8%. The selloff followed hotter-than-expected US September inflation data and growing doubts over AI-related chip spending. South Korea has lost about $289 billion in market value, and Japan’s Nikkei dropped more than 5% intraday.

Bitcoin traded at $80,867.64 on Thursday, down 3.8% over 24 hours, as selling in global equities spread to digital assets. Ether fell 6.6% to $2,362.22 and has lost 8.3% over the past week. Solana slid 6.0% to $102.07, XRP dropped 5.9% to $1.30 and BNB declined 4.3% to $716.43. Total crypto market capitalisation fell 2.7% to $2.831 trillion, while 24-hour trading volume jumped 42% to $107.2 billion as traders moved out of positions. Close to $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions has been liquidated over 24 hours, according to posts on X. Puffer was an exception, more than doubling with a 109.1% gain, while Walrus rose 40.5%.