The U.S. government might shut down again this week, and Bitcoin traders are stuck waiting. If Congress doesn’t agree on a funding deal by midnight Tuesday, large parts of the federal government will stop running.
The shutdown would freeze economic reports, delay key data, and make life harder for anyone trying to predict what the Federal Reserve will do next with interest rates. That uncertainty would rattle Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.
Traders are especially focused on the jobs report. It’s supposed to drop this Friday, but if there’s no funding, it won’t. That’s a problem, because employment data directly affects the Fed’s interest rate decisions, and Bitcoin traders rely on that information to know where the market’s going. Without it, some will hesitate, others will panic, and volatility could jump fast.
Shutdown delays data, feeds Bitcoin swings
This shutdown wouldn’t hit everything, but it would stall agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which collects and releases economic data, as Cryptopolitan has reported. If the payroll report doesn’t come out, it won’t just delay numbers—it’ll shake confidence across financial markets.
Analysts from Bitunix warned that this kind of delay “heightens fragility,” saying a mix of rate-cut hopes, political drama, and market fear could lead to “sharp drop-and-rebound swings” for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Deutsche Bank’s John Reid said the jobs report could be the first real casualty. “This week’s big event might not actually happen,” he said. “Back in October 2013, the shutdown meant we didn’t get the September jobs report until the 22nd of the month.” So, traders could be staring at a data blackout that lasts for weeks, just when they need clarity.
That kind of delay can trigger wild price movements. Nansen’s Nicolai Sondergaard said a shutdown “could spike short-term volatility” in crypto. But he added, “I do wonder if it will be more than that, if investors at large assume the ‘shutdown’ will be resolved quickly.” He also said it’s possible the broader financial markets feel the hit before anything happens at all.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading over $114,000, up 3.8% in the past 24 hours. But it’s still down 0.7% compared to two weeks ago, according to CoinGecko. That tells you where the mood is: slightly up, but uncertain as hell.
Shutdowns have hit Bitcoin both ways
This wouldn’t be Bitcoin’s first shutdown. In 2013, a 16-day closure sent the coin up 14%—from $132.04 to $151.34. But during the record-long 35-day shutdown between December 2018 and January 2019, Bitcoin dropped 6%, going from $3,802.22 to $3,575.85. The difference? In 2013, the market was in a strong bull run. In 2018, it was bleeding.
Julio Moreno from Cryptoquant explained: “The demand for Bitcoin was growing strongly as it entered the final stage of the bull cycle [in 2013].” In contrast, by late 2018, “demand for BTC was contracting during a bear market.” Now, he says, things look more like 2013. “Bitcoin demand is growing, as we enter Q4, which is typically a positive season in terms of price performance.”
Still, nothing is guaranteed. On the prediction market Myriad, run by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users are losing faith in future rate cuts. The percentage of people who doubt the Fed will deliver two cuts in 2025 jumped from 40% to 75% just this month. Some expect cuts at the Fed’s last two meetings of the year. Others think no cuts will happen until 2026.