Bitcoin remains in a bear market but may be entering its final stretch, according to a chart analyst tracking the cryptocurrency’s historical four-year cycle, with a possible bottom forming as soon as October.
A Cycle Bitcoin Has Followed Before
Bitcoin has historically moved through roughly one year of bear market followed by three years of bull market, based on patterns dating back to prior cycles. The current downturn began after Bitcoin’s October 2025 high, putting the cryptocurrency roughly on track to enter its final quarter of decline, the analyst said.
Bitcoin has already reached the full $66,230 to $76,640 resistance zone for Q3, a level the analyst had flagged in advance as the ceiling for this stage of the cycle. A rejection from resistance could open a path down toward $56,500, then $44,000, with $39,000 identified as a further downside target if selling accelerates.
Near-Term Levels to Watch
On shorter timeframes, Bitcoin was rejected near $66,300 in mid-July before breaking below a rising trend line, which now sits near $65,300 and could act as resistance going forward. Near-term support sits in a zone between $59,369 and $62,533, the analyst says, describing this as the key area to watch heading into the weekly close.
A separate resistance band between $64,922 and $66,227 is also being tracked as a ceiling for any short-term bounce, based on Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent high.
Seasonal Patterns Point to a Volatile August
Seasonality data reviewed by the analyst shows that August and September have historically been weak months for Bitcoin during past bear market years, including 2014, 2018, and 2022, while July has typically been the strongest month of any bear market year. In 2022, Bitcoin extended gains into mid-August before reversing, a pattern the analyst said could repeat, though he warned it isn’t a scenario he would trade aggressively.
A Separate Timing Model Points to October
A separate cycle-tracking tool used by the analyst identifies a dominant 260-day rhythm in Bitcoin’s price action. That model correctly flagged a cycle top forming in late May, which was followed by the current selloff. Based on that same rhythm, the tool points to a possible major low forming around October this year, with a margin of two to four weeks in either direction.
The analyst stressed that both the seasonal and cycle-based tools describe general tendencies rather than precise forecasts, and that no method can guarantee exactly when or where Bitcoin’s bear market will conclude.
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