Goldman Sachs warned that macro uncertainties remain significant, though short-term risk has eased for equities. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed past 4.63%, reported AMBCrypto, the highest level since February 2025.
A lack of clarity regarding the U.S.-Iran peace talks and rising oil prices contribute to the macro risk outlook.
Since Friday, the 15th of May, Bitcoin [BTC] has corrected by 5.15%, falling from $81k to $76.9k. The 4-hour chart has a bullish structure, but the area up to $90k was a higher timeframe supply zone.
The recent losses were almost entirely driven by capitulation from short-term holders. Analyst Moreno pointed out on CryptoQuant that the short-term holder profit-taking measured only 112 BTC in the preceding 24-hour window.
By comparison, STH sold roughly 15,000 BTC at a loss, as shown by the 24-hour short-term holder P&L to exchanges metric.
This suggested that the correction from $81k has forced weak hands to sell in increasing numbers. The inflows to exchanges need to be absorbed to keep the price’s short-term uptrend ongoing.
As the price chart earlier showed, a drop below $74,937 would shift the H4 structure bearishly. Until then, despite the macro risks, the short-term uptrend has room to continue higher.
Bearish BTC bias after composite signal slips below zero
The Bitcoin bull-bear structure index used by analyst Axel Adler Jr takes six market signals into account, including taker imbalance, Funding Rate, and ETF flows.
Negative values show a bearish structure, and both the slow and fast versions of the index signaled bearishness.
The index stayed positive for only three days during the latest bullish impulse move above $80k. Thereafter, it has reverted to bearish, which means seller pressure has completely absorbed the buyer impulse.
The Bitcoin price structure composite signal dived into negative territory, indicating sellers were in control. The composite was around -0.55, and the momentum fell to -0.78.
These findings confirmed the stable bearish regime findings from the structure index.
To flip this bearish regime around, steady spot ETF inflows and a price move above the 7-day EMA at $78.2k, along with increased Open Interest and bullish Funding Rates, are needed.
Final Summary
- The 4-hour price structure was technically bullish, but other metrics placed Bitcoin inside a stable bearish regime.
- A price move above $78.2k, increased ETF inflows, and derivatives volume are needed to spark a BTC revival.