The squeeze comes from both directions. As Strategy issued more STRC to fund bitcoin purchases, its annual dividend obligations ballooned from about $300 million at the start of 2026 to $1.2 billion now, a near fourfold jump in under six months.
CryptoQuant noted the reserve needed to reach about $2.8 billion, or 24 months of coverage, for STRC to recover. As such, Strategy reported a $1.1 billion reserve in mid-June.
So its bitcoin offers less of a backstop than its size suggests.
“The company sits on a $10.6 billion unrealized loss, with all Bitcoin purchased in 2024, 2025, and 2026 underwater,” CryptoQuant said. “Any forced BTC sale at current prices would crystallize large losses and destroy shareholder value.”
A forced sale is unlikely soon, though. Strategy is not required to sell bitcoin to defend STRC and can instead raise the dividend or sell new shares to signal it can keep paying, tools it is already using.
CryptoQuant’s prescription is for Strategy to pause its bitcoin buying and rebuild the reserve first, then adopt a systematic approach to timing purchases rather than buying whenever it raises capital.
Strategy cannot simply switch the payments off to save cash. STRC’s dividends are cumulative, meaning any skipped payment still has to be made up later, and CryptoQuant said the company is unlikely to suspend them anyway because doing so would damage its credibility with the preferred holders it needs.
The report is a sharper read than the one Benchmark-StoneX offered on Tuesday.