Prediction market Kalshi lost the preliminary injunction that protected it from enforcement in Nevada right before Thanksgiving. Now it’s waiting to see if the same judge will block state regulators from pursuing enforcement while it files an appeal.
Losing the preliminary injunction was a huge blow for Kalshi because it opens the company up to legal action if it continues to operate in Nevada. Kalshi, like its primary competitor Polymarket, offers prediction markets where its users can bet on the outcome of future events—anything from sports and politics to crypto and traditional markets. In the United States, these markets are regulated at the federal level by the CFTC, and Kalshi argues its CFTC license allows it to operate in all 50 states. But some state regulators don’t agree, and those in Nevada have gained some traction in state district court.
“Kalshi faces a threat of imminent criminal enforcement by Nevada authorities,” the company wrote in its emergency motion filed on Nov. 25. It also asked the court to keep the injunction intact while it goes through the appeals process.
While Kalshi battles regulators in multiple states, it has still seen its volume skyrocket and valuation jump to $11 billion after a $1 billion fundraising round led by Sequoia. An often cited Certuity report estimates that prediction markets could reach $95.5 billion by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate of 46.8%.
After the judge dissolved the injunction, Nevada regulators filed a brief on November 26 to say the state Gaming Control Board and Gaming Commission “will not commence enforcement proceedings against Kalshi while the Court considers Kalshi’s request for a stay pending appeal.” But that’s not the same as the judge ordering an administrative stay.
On Monday, he filed an order asking state regulators to respond to Kalshi’s motion by December 8, saying Kalshi would then have until December 12 to reply before he makes a decision. That mirrors the expediting briefing schedule that the state regulators suggested in their Nov. 26 court filing.
“[Kalshi] has unreasonably refused to stop its unlawful activities in Nevada, even while Crypto.com and Robinhood have entered into agreements with State Defendants to avoid enforcement pending appeal,” the state regulators argued. “Further, every day it continues operating, it harms the State, its gaming industry, and the public interest.”
Gordon approved a preliminary injunction that blocked Nevada regulators from enforcing state gaming laws against Kalshi in April. Prediction markets like Kalshi and its competitors operate under the authority of the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission. But that’s been hotly debated by state regulators, who have argued that the firms are skirting the regulatory frameworks they use for more traditional gambling and gaming companies.
But the same judge did not extend injunctive protection to Crypto.com, which has since entered into an agreement with Nevada regulators to voluntarily pause its operations in the state. Crypto.com’s affiliate, North American Derivatives North America, holds the required designated contract markets license it needs to offer prediction market contracts.