The Bitcoin price is hovering near $69,926, but not everyone is convinced the worst is over. In fact, some voices like Arthur Hayes in the market are openly saying they wouldn’t buy right now even if they had fresh capital ready to deploy.
In a recent appearance on the Coin Stories podcast, he made it clear that if he had $1 to invest today, it wouldn’t be going into BTC just yet. He’d wait. Specifically, he’d wait for central banks to start printing money again.
Because according to this view, it’s not war that’s bullish for crypto. It’s the monetary response that follows.
Bitcoin Price Hinges On Money Printing
Well, the argument is simple: geopolitical conflicts can initially trigger risk-off reactions across markets. That means equities fall, liquidity dries up, and yes, the crypto often gets dragged down with everything else.
The ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran could create exactly that environment. If the conflict drags on, the theory goes, markets might see a broader sell-off before policymakers step in with stimulus. And that’s the moment many large traders are waiting for.
Once central banks begin easing monetary policy and liquidity floods back into the system, assets that thrive on abundant money supply historically start to move. For anyone tracking a Bitcoin price prediction narrative, that policy shift is seen as the real catalyst not the conflict itself.
War Could Trigger Market Liquidations
But let’s be real for a second. Before the liquidity wave comes the storm.
The warning is that prolonged geopolitical stress could trigger a sharp sell-off across equities and crypto markets alike. In that scenario, the Bitcoin/USD pair might not just dip, it could experience cascading liquidations.
One potential target mentioned? A drop below $60,000. That kind of move wouldn’t be unprecedented. The asset briefly touched the $60K level back on early february, before stabilizing and drifting into a mild recovery phase.
Still, traders watching the Bitcoin price chart know how quickly momentum can flip once leveraged positions start unwinding.
On-Chain Metrics Suggest Bottom Missing
And then there’s the on-chain data often the reality check when narratives get loud.
Two metrics are currently raising eyebrows, as well. First is Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL). Historically, major cycle bottoms have appeared when NUPL drops below zero. So far, that hasn’t happened yet.
Second is Supply in Profit. Right now, roughly 58.6% of supply remains in profit, comfortably above the 50% threshold that historically coincided with major market bottoms. For context, the last major cycle bottom in November 2022 occurred when the metric dropped to around 45% while prices hovered near $16,000.
So what does all that suggest? Simply put, the Bitcoin price may not have reached its ultimate floor yet, even if the long-term outlook remains bullish.
Interestingly, despite the caution, the same long-term outlook still includes a bold projection: a potential $250,000 valuation by 2026. But before that kind of rally can happen, the market might have to endure one more shakeout.