Bitcoin is holding above its 200-week moving average for another week, a level that has historically separated bull markets from extended bear markets. The question now dominating analyst discussion is whether the recen
t drop to $59,000 was the cycle low or simply a temporary stop before a deeper decline toward $30,000 to $40,000.
Why the Bulls Are Getting Optimistic
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted something important about how the recent selloff played out. Markets fell heavily in a single week, the kind of move that typically builds momentum and accelerates further to the downside. That acceleration never arrived.
Instead of continuing lower, Bitcoin swept the recent lows and immediately reclaimed earlier support levels. Van de Poppe said that price behaviour increases the probability that the cycle bottom is already relatively close rather than still significantly lower.
“That doesn’t sound like we’re definitely going to be seeing $30,000 to $40,000,” he wrote, suggesting the aggressive downside targets are becoming less likely given how the market responded.
The More Bearish Case Still Exists
An Elliott Wave analysis making rounds outlines a scenario in which Bitcoin is still in the early stages of a multi-year correction that could last four to five years and keep the asset range-bound at much lower levels.
In this scenario the next rally, whenever it arrives, would be a corrective move rather than the start of a genuine new bull market. It could still produce a two to three times return from the lows but would likely be choppy, mentally exhausting, and followed by another significant decline.
The signal to watch is the structure of the first major recovery from whatever the final low turns out to be. A strong five-wave impulse higher would suggest the bear market is over. A weaker three-wave move would suggest the larger correction is still developing.
What to Watch
The 200-week moving average sitting near $62,800 is the immediate battleground. Holding above it keeps both scenarios open. A sustained break below it would shift the probability toward the more bearish multi-year outlook.
The reactions to support over the coming weeks will be more informative than any single price level. How Bitcoin bounces, and whether that bounce shows genuine strength or fades quickly, will determine which scenario is actually playing out.