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Home»Analysis»Is a Relief Rally Finally Here?
Analysis

Is a Relief Rally Finally Here?

July 4, 2026No Comments4 Mins Read
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XRP price gained more than 3% today, reclaiming the $1.13 mark as bullish momentum gradually returns to the market. After weeks of persistent selling pressure, the sixth-largest cryptocurrency is beginning to attract renewed buying interest, supported by both on-chain metrics and technical indicators. With analysts identifying one of XRP’s strongest historical buy zones and a fresh buy signal flashing on the charts. Traders are now watching whether this rebound can develop into a broader recovery toward higher resistance levels.

Historic On-Chain Data Suggests XRP Could Be Deeply Undervalued

Santiment believes XRP may be trading at one of its most attractive risk-reward levels in years. The firm’s latest research shows XRP’s 30-day MVRV has fallen to nearly -45%, while its 365-day MVRV sits around -47%, indicating that both recent buyers and long-term holders are sitting on unusually large unrealized losses. According to Santiment, XRP has never recorded lower average returns across these two timeframes throughout its nearly 12-year trading history.

XRP on-chain data

Historically, such deeply negative MVRV readings have appeared when investor sentiment reaches maximum pessimism. Rather than signaling the beginning of another major decline, these conditions have often marked the final stages of capitulation before buyers gradually regain control. Santiment also notes that while XRP could still experience short-term volatility alongside the broader crypto market, much of the downside risk appears to have already been absorbed. That makes current levels increasingly attractive for investors looking at long-term positioning instead of short-term price swings.

SuperTrend Buy Signal Strengthens the Bullish Case

Adding further confidence to the recovery narrative, crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently highlighted that the SuperTrend indicator has flashed a fresh buy signal on XRP for the first time since mid-June. The indicator has built a strong reputation for identifying major trend reversals throughout the current cycle. Notably, its previous buy signal preceded a 14% price rally, while earlier sell signals successfully captured corrections of nearly 19% and 16%.

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XRP buy signal

Although no technical indicator guarantees future performance, the combination of a historically oversold market and a fresh momentum shift is attracting growing attention from traders looking for early signs of trend reversal. With both on-chain valuation metrics and technical indicators aligning, market participants believe XRP may finally be transitioning from distribution into accumulation.

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XRP Price Analysis: Can Bulls Reclaim $1.20?

XRP price is showing its strongest recovery attempt in several weeks after defending support around $1.10. Buyers have steadily stepped back into the market, helping the token establish a higher low while short-term momentum indicators continue improving. Analysts note that the current rebound remains constructive as long as XRP maintains support above $1.10-$1.12. Holding this region would strengthen the possibility of a continued move toward the immediate resistance between $1.18 and $1.20, where sellers previously rejected multiple recovery attempts.

XRP price outlook

A successful breakout above that zone could shift overall market structure back in favor of the bulls and open the door for a move toward $1.28-$1.35, especially if Bitcoin maintains its recent stability. However, failure to clear overhead resistance may trigger another period of consolidation before the next breakout attempt. Even so, improving volume, recovering momentum, and stronger sentiment suggest sellers are gradually losing control after months of sustained weakness.

Why Analysts Are Turning Constructive on XRP

Unlike previous rebounds driven purely by broader market strength, XRP’s latest recovery is being supported by multiple independent indicators. Extreme MVRV readings point toward historic undervaluation, while the SuperTrend buy signal suggests bearish momentum is beginning to fade. At the same time, improving price action indicates buyers are slowly rebuilding confidence near key support levels rather than chasing prices after a sharp rally. 

Although confirmation above major resistance is still required, analysts believe XRP is beginning to build one of its strongest recovery setups since the recent correction started. With Santiment highlighting historically oversold on-chain conditions and technical indicators flashing fresh buy signals, the probability of a relief rally is increasing. If bulls can reclaim the $1.20 resistance zone, XRP could be well-positioned to extend its recovery in the sessions ahead.

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finally Rally Relief
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