Ethereum’s long stretch of sideways movement may be closer to resolution than most market participants expect. A higher time frame analysis shared by a TradingView analyst suggests the current structure is the final stage before a larger expansion that sees the Ethereum price rallying by over 100% in 2026.
This prediction rests on decades of price history that, taken together, present a compelling case. Ethereum has done this before, the structure is intact, and a 100% move from the current price level is possible.
A Six-Year Consolidation Hiding A Bullish Structure
Technical analysis of higher timeframe charts, particularly the monthly candlestick timeframe, shows that Ethereum has spent much of the past six years locked in a wide consolidation range, with repeated failures between $4,500 and $4,900. That range has acted as a ceiling across multiple attempts, consistently attracting selling pressure each time price approaches it.
To understand where Ethereum may be going, a technical analyst known as Phil on the TradingView platform noted that traders must first understand where it has been. Not in weeks or months, but across the full sweep of its market history.
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Two moments stand out as structural inflection points on the monthly chart. The first came in early 2017, when the ETH price broke above the $40 psychological resistance level after repeatedly failing to clear it throughout 2016. That was the ignition point for a rally of about 7,500%.
The second came in mid-2020, when Ethereum, having spent two years consolidating inside a falling wedge pattern, staged another breakout from the lower support trendline of that formation, launching a continuation rally of roughly 1,900%.
Ethereum Price Chart. Source: TradingView
The Breakout Path To A 100% Rally
What followed both breakouts was a prolonged period of sideways price action, and that is precisely where Ethereum finds itself again. ETH has now been consolidating for almost six years below $4,900. The overall bullish trend, however, has not been broken.
Corrections since 2021 have led to the creation of higher lows, and this is playing out an ascending triangle pattern on the monthly timeframe. Ethereum has already pulled back roughly 25% from its recent highs, easing bearish momentum into the support region of the triangle pattern.
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On the other, the $2,000 psychological level, which ETH tested just weeks ago, provides a second significant floor. As it stands, ETH has already bounced approximately 8% on the monthly chart since the $2,000 low was reached and held. The next step, according to the analysis, would be confirmation through higher lows and a push away from support.
If the support holds and bullish confirmation develops, the path forward becomes relatively straightforward from a technical standpoint. The first major target is a return to the $4,500 resistance range. A clean break above that level would finalize the completion of the ascending triangle. According to the analyst, this is expected to play out a 100% rally in 2026.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com