One crypto analyst says Hedera’s HBAR is approaching a critical test, with a potential $268 million token release looming in the current quarter. The figure comes from Hedera’s own Treasury Management Report. The latest forecast shows 4.07 billion HBAR scheduled for release in Q3 2026. Around 3.88 billion HBAR is tied to the ecosystem development program. This funding goes primarily to the Hedera Foundation.
The Release Story Is Not That Simple
The analyst stressed that “released” does not mean sold. According to Hedera’s definition, tokens are considered released when they move from accounts controlled by the Hedera Council to accounts controlled by another party, often the Foundation. Those tokens can still be held for months or quarters.
The analyst also noted that Hedera does not itself define or use the term “circulating supply.” Therefore, the supply figures reported by different trackers may rely on their own definitions.
The latest forecast would represent the second-largest quarterly release in Hedera’s history, behind Q1 2023. However, past forecasts have not always matched actual movements. A projected 4 billion HBAR release in Q2 ultimately saw only 186 million HBAR move. The previous quarter forecast 3.72 billion HBAR, while actual movement was around 383 million.
The analyst says this leaves two possibilities: the Foundation may be deliberately slowing distribution, which could reduce immediate selling pressure. Alternatively, the forecast column may be unreliable.
Treasury Is Nearly Spent
If the latest forecast is completed, around 47.5 billion of the 50 billion pre-mined HBAR would be distributed. This would leave just 2.4 billion, or less than 5%, unreleased. However, the original distribution schedule runs until roughly 2033. Moreover, Hedera only publishes one forecast quarter at a time.
The analyst also challenged claims that a previous HBAR release triggered a 700% rally. HBAR rose from roughly $0.05 to $0.39 between September and December 2024, but the 3.97 billion HBAR release came afterward in Q1 2025, followed by an 83% decline to around $0.0612.
The Bigger Question Is Network Revenue
The analyst’s biggest concern is whether Hedera can eventually fund itself through network fees. Current fees were around $1,354 per day, or roughly $1.5 million annually, against a market capitalization near $3 billion.
Fees are not burned. They are distributed to staking rewards, node rewards and the network treasury. Hedera also raised a major transaction fee from 0.1 to 0.8 in January to improve long-term sustainability.
Overall, the analyst remains open to the bullish case, noting that released tokens are not automatically sold and fees could grow rapidly. But the core takeaway is clear: after eight years of Treasury-funded operations, Hedera must increasingly prove that its network activity can pay the bills itself.