Ethereum has slipped into a valuation range that some on-chain analysts associate with major long-term bottoms, after ETH fell below its realized price for the first time in two years. Via X, renowned crypto analyst Ali Martinez argued on Thursday the setup now resembles prior cycle lows.
Ethereum Drops Into MVRV Buy Zone
In a post on X, the analyst wrote: “Ethereum has entered a generational ‘Buy Zone.’ The MVRV Ratio, which measures the gap between market price and average investor cost basis, has just dropped into the 0.8 – 1.0 range. Historically, this ‘fair value’ reset has been the precursor to massive structural bull rallies.”
That framing rests on a familiar on-chain logic. When MVRV falls toward or below 1.0, spot price is converging with, or moving under, the aggregate on-chain cost basis of holders. In practical terms, the market is no longer pricing Ethereum at the rich premium seen during euphoric phases. Instead, it is testing a zone where prior cycles have exhausted sellers and attracted longer-duration buyers.
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Martinez paired that argument with a chart showing previous rebounds from the same region. The historical moves cited from this “Buy Zone” were substantial: roughly 150%, 5,390%, 130%, 280% and 250%. The implication was explicit. “On-chain data suggests Ethereum is approaching a long-term bottom. For those with a 12-24 month horizon, the accumulation window is officially open!”
Glassnode posted a similar signal last week, though in more restrained terms. “ETH has dropped below its realized price for the first time in 2 years – signaling that the average investor is now holding an unrealized loss,” the firm wrote on March 11. It added two key metrics alongside the chart: Realized Price at $2,058.04 and MVRV: 0.93 (7% unrealized loss).
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Those numbers sharpen the broader thesis. A realized price of $2,058.04 against a market price of $1,917.86 means Ethereum was trading below the average on-chain acquisition cost tracked by Glassnode’s model. An MVRV of 0.93 suggests the typical holder, in aggregate, is down about 7% on paper. That does not guarantee a bottom, but it does indicate a phase where speculative excess has already been largely unwound.
In overheated markets, MVRV expands as price runs well above the network’s realized cost basis, often reflecting crowded profits and rising distribution risk. In contrast, sub-1.0 readings tend to appear when conviction is weak, sentiment is damaged, and marginal sellers have already absorbed a large part of the decline. That is why analysts often treat the zone as strategically important even if price action remains volatile in the short term.
At press time, ETH rebounded above realized price again and traded at $2,139.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com