Since the October crash, the relationship between equities and crypto has become more complicated. Although the crash wiped out billions across all markets, crypto was hit harder than equities.
In fact, NASDAQ finished Q4 up 2.4% while Bitcoin [BTC] dropped 6.3%, showing that investor confidence leans more bullishly toward equities. So any FUD in stocks could quickly spill over into crypto.
Building on this, the U.S. stock market is already jittery ahead of another “DeepSeek-led” crash. Naturally, that puts crypto, especially Bitcoin, under the spotlight, given how it has reacted to similar events in the past.
Source: TradingView (NVDA/USD)
For context, Chinese AI startup DeepSeek is reportedly preparing to release its next-gen model very soon. Last year, when DeepSeek released DeepSeek-R1 in January 2025, the market reacted sharply.
NVIDIA [NVDA], for instance, dropped 17% in a single day, wiping out $600 billion, Nasdaq 100 fell 3% for a $1 trillion loss. Other tech giants like Microsoft declined 5%-6%, erasing hundreds of billions in market cap.
Notably, crypto was hit hard too, with over $330 billion erased as Bitcoin and altcoins dropped 8%-15% in a single day. This highlights how stock market crashes have recently spilled into crypto, making the upcoming DeepSeek news especially significant.
Bitcoin faces key test as market anxiety builds
Since the October crash, sentiment has emerged as a key market indicator.
Simply put, the wider crypto market is facing heightened capitulation risks, not due to “crypto-specific” bearish trends, but because macro volatility is forcing capital out of risk assets as sentiment quickly shifts to risk-off.
Illustrating this trend, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index continues to hover in the red, signaling persistent bearish sentiment. Consequently, even minor shocks in equities can spill over into crypto, amplifying price swings.
Source: BGeometrics
Notably, the market is already pricing in a $60k break next.
At the same time, growing FUD around DeepSeek, historical trends pointing to potential wipeouts, Bitcoin’s relative weakness compared to equities, and fragile sentiment all suggest that this positioning isn’t a fluke.
Instead, macro data and market setups show that Bitcoin’s recent moves have been largely driven by macro volatility, underlining why another DeepSeek event could likely push BTC below this key support zone.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin and crypto are vulnerable as macro volatility pushes capital out of risk assets, with the Fear & Greed Index still in extreme fear zones.
- Historical trends and growing FUD around DeepSeek suggest that another major event could likely push BTC below $60k.