Bitcoin could rally up to over $400K in the new bull market cycle, according to Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
In an X post, Young Ju projected that BTC won’t explode halfway compared to past wild rallies.
I expect this Bitcoin bull cycle to deliver 3–5x rather than another 10x+ parabolic rally, followed by a milder bear market.
At the current market price of $86K per BTC, that translates to a $258K-$430K price target.
Backing his argument, the executive cited growing institutional adoption that will dampen the historical 80% dips, adding that the upside will also be capped.
Young Ju added that the PnL Index Signal, which tracks aggregate investor profitability, has topped and bottomed out at less extreme levels compared to past trends.
Similarly, the MVRV, another key valuation metric that typically slips below 1 (extreme distress, losses) to mark past cycle bottoms, rebounded without tagging 1 in the recent cycle.
According to Young Ju, the past wild and explosive BTC rallies were driven by “hot money” from retail investors.
Now, more mature players from ETFs and corporates are taking over. Interestingly, Ju believes the dampened volatility and the ensuing stability could push BTC to become real global money.
That said, do other projection models agree with Young Ju’s 5x rally projection?
The Bitcoin Rainbow chart says…
Interestingly, the Bitcoin Rainbow chart agreed with the bold bet. The model marked out past market bottoms at ‘fire sale’ levels and peaks around ‘bubble’ and ‘FOMO’ levels.
For the current beginning cycle, the bottom was accurately triggered near $60K, which fell within the ‘fire sale’ zone. For the next potential peak, the marked level was at $423K (bubble zone). This aligned with Young Ju’s bullish target of $430K.
It remains to be seen if the bold projection will be validated.
Meanwhile, the extended BTC rally above $85K has triggered on-chain and technical indicators, which all agree that the bear market is over and the bull run is back.
Although short liquidations have also helped fuel the rally, the fear that profit-taking may stall the recovery may be overblown, according to Bitfinex analysts. The analysts noted that aSOPR, which tracks profit-taking, was currently at 1% compared to 4% during the August breakout.
BTC is up 47% off the July low, and holders still aren’t cashing out. This time there is barely any selling to absorb.
In other words, with low selling pressure, BTC’s uptrend could extend in the short term.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin could rally up to 5x or +$400K this cycle, according to CryptoQuant CEO.
- There was 4x lower selling pressure compared to the August breakout, offering more room for an extended BTC rally.