Prediction-market traders are giving the United States a narrow edge over Belgium after FIFA cleared striker Folarin Balogun to play in Monday’s World Cup round-of-16 match, a decision that followed direct lobbying from US President Donald Trump and triggered criticism from European soccer officials.
Prices on Polymarket showed the US with about a 39% chance of winning in regulation time, compared with 35% for Belgium and 29% for a draw. The market has drawn more than $6 million in bets as of press time.
A separate Polymarket market priced Balogun at about 90% to appear in the match, signaling trader confidence that the forward will take the field despite the controversy surrounding his red card.
Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction exchange, showed a similar lean in the advancement market.
Contracts tied to the US reaching the quarter-finals were priced around 52%, compared with 48% for Belgium.
In a separate player market, Balogun was priced at about 40% to score, ahead of Belgium striker Romelu Lukaku at roughly 36%.
The prices point to a modest but clear shift toward the US after FIFA suspended Balogun’s one-match ban.
How Balogun’s return reset the market
Balogun’s availability gave traders a new variable to price after FIFA’s disciplinary committee suspended the one-match ban that typically follows a red card.
The striker was sent off during the US win over Bosnia and Herzegovina after a video review found that he had made dangerous contact with defender Tarik Muharemovic.
The decision forced the US to finish the match with 10 men and appeared likely to keep one of its top attacking threats out of the game against Belgium.
However, FIFA applied Article 27 of its disciplinary code, allowing the governing body to suspend enforcement of the ban for one year. Balogun remains on probation, meaning the original sanction can be imposed if he commits a similar offense during that period.
That decision changed the market calculation as traders had previously priced Belgium slightly ahead of the US, with Polymarket contracts giving Belgium about a 38% chance of winning as of 12:30 a.m. on July 5.
But the balance quickly shifted after Balogun was cleared to play, moving the US into a narrow lead across prediction markets.
For crypto bettors, the immediate question was less about FIFA’s disciplinary precedent than its effect on the US lineup.
Balogun has scored three goals in three starts at the tournament, making him one of the team’s main attacking threats. His return gives coach Mauricio Pochettino another scoring option as the US tries to reach the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time since 2002.
Belgium and UEFA push back against FIFA
FIFA’s decision has drawn significant backlash across the Football world, with European soccer officials challenging both the process and the precedent.
The Royal Belgian Football Association said it was astonished by FIFA’s decision and argued that the suspension of the ban conflicted with rules that make a one-match penalty automatic after a red card. The Belgian federation said it was reviewing its options.
UEFA also criticized the ruling, saying FIFA had undermined confidence in the enforcement of tournament rules. The European governing body said the certainty of disciplinary standards is central to the credibility of the competition.
Former FIFA President Sepp Blatter added to the criticism, saying red-card decisions should be handled by rules, evidence and independent bodies rather than political intervention.
He stated:
“If a US President intervenes with the FIFA President — and a player is suddenly cleared before a World Cup knockout match — the question is unavoidable: Quo vadis, FIFA?”
His remarks echoed a wider concern that a disciplinary process can lose legitimacy when outside pressure appears to influence outcomes.
Belgium enters the match with its own attacking threat, led by Lukaku, but the dispute has shifted part of the pregame focus away from tactics and toward governance.
The question is no longer only how Belgium handles Balogun on the field, but whether FIFA’s process will face a deeper challenge after allowing him onto it.
US camp welcomes the reprieve
Meanwhile, the US entourage led by President Trump has welcomed the football governing body’s decision.
On Truth Social, Trump wrote:
“Thank you to FIFA for doing what was right, and reversing a great injustice!”
Pochettino also defended the decision, saying the original red card was harsh.
The US coach said his team had already been punished by playing with 10 men against Bosnia and Herzegovina. He argued that the decision to send Balogun off was unfair and welcomed FIFA’s move to make him available for the next round.
Balogun’s return gives the US a direct scoring threat against a Belgium side with more knockout-stage experience.
It also gives prediction markets a clear reason to reassess the match, even if the shift remains narrow.