Bitcoin is trading near $90,000, extending a fall-off after spending several days above $92,000. The crypto now faces a fresh macro test as markets brace for a U.S. Supreme Court decision that could land Friday on the legality of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs.
The case centers on tariffs imposed in early 2025 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 1977 statute typically used for sanctions during national emergencies.
Trump used the law to justify “Liberation Day” tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on global imports, alongside targeted duties on China, Canada, and Mexico tied to fentanyl trafficking concerns.
His administration argued that persistent trade deficits and national security risks met the threshold for an emergency.
Lower courts disagreed. Both the U.S. Court of International Trade and a federal appeals court ruled that Trump exceeded his authority, emphasizing that Congress holds primary power over tariffs.
The Supreme Court heard arguments in November, with skepticism voiced across ideological lines. While the court does not preannounce decisions, it has signaled rulings could be released on Jan. 9.
If the tariffs are struck down, the financial implications could be large. Reuters reported that more than $133.5 billion in duties could be subject to refunds, raising questions about timing, fiscal impact, and replacement policies.
Trump has claimed the tariffs generated roughly $600 billion in revenue, a figure that has shaped market anxiety around refunds and Treasury financing.
The ruling’s impact on Bitcoin
All traders are watching this situation closely, not because tariffs directly affect Bitcoin’s network, but because macro shocks in all markets often ripple through risk assets. During prior trade escalations, Bitcoin tended to sell off alongside equities as liquidity tightened and risk appetite faded.
Warnings have grown louder on social media. Semi-popular trader Wimar.X called Friday “the worst day of 2026,” arguing that a negative ruling could force markets to price refund obligations, emergency policy responses, and retaliation risks at the same time. “That’s not clarity. That’s chaos,” he wrote.
Prediction markets reflect those concerns.
On Polymarket, odds imply a strong chance (76%) the court invalidates the tariffs, suggesting traders see downside risk as under-appreciated. Still, not all expect a lasting selloff.
For Bitcoin, the near-term risk appears tied to volatility rather than direction. The asset remains sensitive to shifts in yields, equities, and dollar liquidity. A sharp risk-off move could push prices lower, especially with Bitcoin still below key resistance near $94,000 to $95,000. A ruling that reduces uncertainty could also produce a brief relief rally.
The larger question is not whether Bitcoin crashes on a headline, but whether a court decision reshapes the macro backdrop for BTC.