Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and chief investment officer at Fundstrat Capital, said on Monday that Bitcoin could climb to $200,000 before the end of 2025. Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Lee argued that the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions will be critical for the path of cryptocurrencies.
“Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies like Ethereum are very sensitive to monetary policy,” Lee said. “If the Fed moves toward rate cuts, it could set the stage for a very strong fourth quarter.”
The Fed and Market Signals
Lee’s comments came as new jobs data pointed to a softening labor market. Bond markets are now expecting three interest rate cuts this year, more than the Fed’s current projection of two.
According to Lee, the slowdown in hiring is becoming harder for the Fed to ignore. “Once the labor market weakens, it is difficult to reverse that momentum,” he said, adding that faster rate cuts could support housing, boost business confidence, and encourage broader economic growth.
Why Crypto Could Benefit
Lee explained that Bitcoin tends to perform well in the fourth quarter, particularly during periods when the Fed shifts toward easing. He pointed to past examples in 1998 and 2024, when similar cycles of rate cuts coincided with strong rallies in both equities and cryptocurrencies.
“Equities do well in those environments, and crypto, which often moves in line with equities, could benefit even more,” Lee explained. “That’s why I believe Bitcoin can reach $200,000 before year end.”
Ethereum, he added, could also see gains, especially if small-cap stocks continue their recent strength. “At all-time highs, investors are still bearish. That tells me there is room for markets, including crypto, to move higher if the Fed delivers on cuts,” Lee said.