Bull or bear? Next $106k retest could decide Bitcoin’s fate

Bitcoin has treated $106,400 as a pivot across the current cycle, acting as both resistance and support.

Price has repeatedly clustered near the level, cleared it on retests, and expanded toward the next channel bands, while breaks below the level often required a repair phase before any advance.

My charts below show price channels that have been most influential to Bitcoin since the start of 2024, with $106,400 highlighted by the solid yellow line.

In mid-December 2024, the price first broke $106,000 after a steady climb from sub-$100,000 areas. Once the level cleared, the price pressed to $107,800 before failing a retest of $106,400 and falling back into the mid-$90,000s.

Late January 2025 brought a similar pattern with more back-and-fill. Bitcoin met $106,400 from below, then stalled. Follow-through carried the intraday price into the $108,300 range before again failing the retest.

Even with noise inside the channel grid, the inflection at $106,400 organized the action, with the market repeatedly checking the level before moving back down. The consistency of this behavior across weeks is what makes the line useful for risk management.

By late May 2025, the relationship flipped. The price tested $106,400 twice from below and then twice more from above before using this level as support several more times.

Bounces carried to $111,900 and $110,300, then momentum faded on the sixth retest, and a grind lower began.

During this period, $106,400 behaved like a floor. As long as closes held above it, sellers failed to press the next lower bands in size. Once that floor finally gave way by the end of the month, recovery took longer, reinforcing the idea that losing the pivot changes the tempo.

June 2025 illustrated the support and resistance function again.

After dipping below the level in mid-month and subsequently being rejected four more times (with one intraday breakout above), Bitcoin eventually reclaimed $106,400 at the end of the month, held multiple intraday highs, and advanced to $108,300 and $109,400.

The response after each retest was orderly, which is typical when a widely watched pivot is respected. Traders who waited for confirmation at the line had explicit invalidation if the price fell back through $106,400, and clear targets in the upper bands if it held.

This saw Bitcoin crack into price discovery territory and eventually reach its cycle high of $126,000. We did not see $106,400 tested again until the Trump trade tariff $19 billion wipeout on October 10.

The sequence from October to early November 2025 shows the other side.

A decisive drop from higher levels wicked down to $106,400 before surging back toward $115,000. Bitcoin has attempted to hold the pivot several times, and as of press time, it is about to mark its eighth test.

So far, each time $106,400 has been tested since we hit $126,000, the price immediately bounced back toward $110,000 – $115,000.

Ominously, Bitcoin has never held $106,400 after eight retests before.

These repeated interactions matter because they compress a complex set of variables into a single reference.

$106,400 aligns with the middle of the current channel pack on the displayed framework, which means it sits near a fair-value axis where both buyers and sellers find liquidity.

When the price is accepted above this level, the path of least resistance shifts to the next upper cluster. When the price rejects or loses its level, the market often has to rebuild participation below before buyers regain control again.

The pattern across the screenshots can be summarized as follows.

For traders who map decisions to levels, the playbook is straightforward.

When price clears $106,400 and confirms on a retest, attention naturally shifts to the next overhead clusters around $107,800, $108,300, $109,400, and $110,500, which line up with the dashed yellow rungs on the displayed ladder.

Failure back through the pivot returns focus to the downside stack around $105,500, $104,500, and $103,800, where the market has repeatedly found liquidity during breakdowns.

This framework does not predict direction; it defines areas where execution quality tends to improve and where invalidation is unambiguous.

This level also helps reconcile conflicting signals from momentum or funding.

During periods when momentum turns but price still sits above $106,400, the path to higher bands often remains open as long as the pivot holds.

During periods when derivative positioning appears crowded, yet the market cannot reclaim its level, the burden of proof remains with buyers until acceptance returns. The outcome is a practical approach to managing exposure without overfitting to short-term indicators.

None of these assigns special status to a single number beyond its repeated use in the current structure. Markets evolve, and pivots migrate as distributions shift.

However, the charted channels have depicted intraday support and resistance levels for almost 2 years at this point.

The value of $106,400 lies in the tape that keeps returning to it, the reactions that form around it, and the clarity it offers for planning the next trade.

Thus, $106,400 appears to be functioning as the cycle’s balance point, and price continues to treat it accordingly..