Bitcoin
Some crypto-related stocks are still holding gains, led by Hut 8 (HUT), which continues to rise following its deal last week for a 15-year AI data center lease with Fluidstack. Shares are higher by 16% Monday, helped by a price target increase Benchmark’s Mark Palmer.
Other names in the green include Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD), though both are well off session highs as crypto prices have pulled back. Strategy (MSTR) has swung from a 3% gain to a modest loss late in the day.
Options expiration
The recent highly choppy price action between $85,000 and $90,000, comes ahead of Friday’s record-setting $28.5 billion in BTC and ETH options expirations on crypto derivatives exchange Deribit. That amount represents more than half of Deribit’s $52.2 billion in open interest, noted Jean-David Pequignot, the exchange’s chief commercial officer.
“This year-end expiry marks the culmination of a year defined by institutional maturity and a shift from speculative cycles to a policy-driven supercycle,” said Pequignot.
At the center of the action, Pequignot continued, is bitcoin’s $96,000 “max pain” level, where option writers stand to benefit most. A notable $1.2 billion in open interest is clustered at the $85,000 strike in puts, which could pull spot prices lower if selling pressure builds. While mid-term call spreads targeting $100,000–$125,000 remain in play, short-term protective puts have grown more expensive, he said.
The skew between call and put pricing has dropped from recent highs but still indicates caution, Pequignot continued.
Traders appear to be rolling defensive positions forward rather than closing them out, he said. According to Péquignot, there’s been a shift from December $85,000–$70,000 puts into January $80,000–$75,000 put spreads. This suggests that while the immediate risk into year-end is being covered, traders remain wary of what’s ahead.