Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan says Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to break from its historical four-year cycle as institutional adoption and regulatory progress reshape the market.
On the Bankless YouTube channel, Hougan argues that the forces traditionally used to explain Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior have weakened, while new structural drivers now play a larger role.
Hougan says the Bitcoin halving has become less influential with each iteration, removing a smaller amount of supply and no longer acting as a dominant catalyst for price movements.
Hougan adds that past industry blow-ups, including Mt. Gox, the ICO collapse and FTX, contributed to previous downturns. He says those risks have diminished as crypto moves into a more regulated environment defined by spot exchange-traded funds and qualified custodians.
He believes institutional demand has become a dominant feature of the market and expects it to overwhelm any lingering elements of the old cycle model.
“You have these one-time generational massive forces of regulatory improvement and institutional adoption, and I think they’ll just overwhelm whatever lingering tiny forces persist from the old four-year cycle.”
He also points to interest rate cycles as a declining factor. Hougan notes that rates surged in 2018 and 2022 but says expectations now center on easing rather than tightening into 2026, reducing another pillar of the historical cycle framework.
Addressing macro conditions, Hougan says Bitcoin stands to benefit in multiple scenarios, whether through strong economic growth or policy responses that increase liquidity during slowdowns.
He emphasizes that his comments do not represent a specific price forecast, but rather reflect a view that Bitcoin continues to move higher without reverting to historical cycle patterns.
Bitcoin is trading at $86,462 at time of writing.
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