Bitcoin is struggling to build momentum around the $90,000 level, yet at least one headline-grabbing buyer appears to be leaning in the opposite direction.
Adam Back, the CEO of Blockstream, said on X (formerly Twitter) that a “Bitfinex whale” is purchasing roughly 450 Bitcoin per day at current price levels, a pace that would translate into about $40.6 million of daily demand with Bitcoin trading around $90,233 at the time of writing.
According to Back:
The Bitfinex whale [was] initially [buying] 300 BTC/day, but now ramped to 450 BTC around the $90k mark. [This is] same as the [total] number of Bitcoins mined per day. Around $470/second all-day-long.
On paper, a persistent buyer of that size can, in principle, offset incremental new supply, even if only at the margin and only for as long as the flow persists.
However, the bigger question is whether these large buyers can change the character of a market that has recently struggled to sustain rallies, with participants repeatedly taking profits quickly or cutting losses into rebounds.
A whale-sized bid meets whale-sized skepticism
Notably, the Bitfinex whale buying narrative is not occurring in isolation.
Data from Santiment showed that Bitcoin “whales and sharks” continued accumulating despite weak sentiment, with wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin adding 36,322 BTC over the past nine days. This represents a 0.27% increase in their collective holdings.
That kind of absorption can matter in a market where marginal flows often set the tone, especially when price is pinned near a widely watched strike level.
However, accumulation data can be deceptively comforting because it does not automatically reveal the price levels at which holders become sellers, nor whether the broader market has enough depth to carry prices through overhead supply.
This is why the Bitfinex bid, if real and persistent, may be more interesting as a stabilizing force than as a directional prophecy.
This is because a steady buyer can slow panic and reduce the odds of disorderly dips, without necessarily creating the kind of demand surge that breaks a market into a new trend.
Bitcoin’s ‘Failed Breakout’ map shows the problem
In its latest Week On-Chain report, analytics firm Glassnode argued that Bitcoin remains in a moderate bear phase bounded by specific levels tied to cost basis behavior.
The firm identified the True Market Mean around $81,100 as downside support and the Short-Term Holder cost basis around $98,400 as upside resistance.
That upper band matters because it is where “breakeven supply” from recent buyers becomes increasingly active. In practice, that means rallies into the area can invite selling pressure rather than unlock trend upward momentum, as holders who bought near the highs use strength to exit closer to flat.
This is further exacerbated by the fact that the market has not fully recovered from prior distribution.
According to the firm, the recent rally “partially filled” what it called an “air gap” between approximately $93,000 and $98,000. This was a sign that the supply previously held by BTC top buyers had been redistributed to newer participants.
However, above the $100,000 mark, Glassnode still saw a “wide and dense” supply zone that has been gradually maturing into the long-term holder cohort.
That unresolved overhang is likely to cap attempts above both $98,400 and $100,000 unless demand accelerates meaningfully and sustainably.
Meanwhile, this same friction shows up in Bitcoin holders’ profit and loss realized behavior.
Glassnode highlighted that realized losses have been dominated by the 3–6 month cohort, with additional contributions from 6–12 month holders. The pattern is linked to “pain-driven” selling by investors who accumulated above $110,000 and are now exiting as the price revisits their entry range.
On the profit side, the firm saw a rise in realizations from the 0% to 20% profit margin cohort, consistent with breakeven sellers and swing traders taking thin gains rather than holding for expansion.
In sum, the on-chain picture explains why Bitcoin rebounds feel heavy even when spot conditions improve.
Derivatives treat $90,000 as a fault line
This is where the Bitfinex whale narrative intersects with microstructure.
Glassnode noted that dealer gamma positioning has skewed lower, with takers bidding for downside protection, leaving dealers short gamma below $90,000 and long gamma above that strike.
The implication is asymmetric. Under $90,000, hedging flows can amplify downside moves. Above $90,000, dealer positioning can dampen follow-through, turning the level into a friction point rather than a launchpad.
If a large, steady spot buyer is indeed ramping activity around $90,000, it could matter disproportionately, not because it guarantees upside, but because it may reduce the chance of slipping into the “short gamma” zone where moves can accelerate.
Outside of whale watching, Glassnode described a derivatives market that looks disengaged. It called futures participation a “ghost town,” noting that seven-day futures volume has contracted and that price moves have occurred without meaningful volume expansion.
The firm also flagged open interest adjustments without corresponding traded volume, a pattern consistent with churn and risk recycling rather than fresh leverage entering the system.
Options markets, meanwhile, are pricing risk primarily at the front end. Glassnode said one-week implied volatility rose by more than 13 volatility points after a macro and geopolitical headline-driven sell-off, while three-month volatility rose only approximately 2 points, and six-month volatility barely moved.
On Bitfinex itself, leverage positioning offers another lens.
According to Tradingview data, the number of bullish Bitcoin bets made with borrowed funds on the exchange, known as margin long positions, has been declining. On a year-to-date basis, the tally dropped to roughly 70,639 Bitcoin from a peak of 72,000.
It then increased slightly to around 71,000 Bitcoin as of press time, signaling renewed dip buying during the slide. However, the broader trend during the past month remains downward.
That matters because these margin long positions have historically acted as a contrary indicator in past cycles, typically peaking when the market is struggling and then drying up as a new uptrend begins.
What a persistent whale bid can, and cannot, do
Considering all of the above, the most disciplined way to think about the whale bid is in regimes rather than narratives.
In a base case, Bitcoin continues oscillating inside Glassnode’s cost-basis range, supported above roughly $81,100, but struggling to sustain bids through roughly $98,400 and into the $100,000-plus supply overhang.
In that environment, a persistent whale bid can help keep dips orderly, yet it will not automatically break the market out unless spot participation broadens beyond selective absorption.
In a bull case, demand accelerates enough to reclaim and hold $98,400, forcing the market to absorb the dense supply zone above $100,000 rather than repeatedly distributing into it.
For that to happen, the Bitcoin market would likely need to see more sustained accumulation, and the derivatives volume would need to re-enter the sector in a way that supports trend formation rather than thin-liquidity pops.
In a bear case, BTC price falls under $90,000 and cannot quickly recover, pushing the market into a zone where dealers are short gamma, and hedging flows can intensify the downside.
In that scenario, the whale’s presence becomes a key variable. If the bid persists, it could blunt the move. If it fades, the market risks sliding back toward deeper cost-basis support.
