As volatility continues to weigh on sentiment, investors are watching a key level that bulls simply cannot afford to break. Otherwise, it could trigger massive liquidity sweeps. This, in turn, would slow down any recovery attempts.
Specifically, analysts are zeroing in on $60k for Bitcoin [BTC], calling it a potential liquidation trigger. At this level, huge amounts of loans and liquidity are stacked, making it a true make-or-break point for the bulls.
From a technical perspective, this level is also reinforced by Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average. Historically, when BTC stays above this trend line, it signals a healthy uptrend, while a break below it could spook bulls.
Source: Bloomberg
Meanwhile, data across exchanges underlined the potential costs at stake.
Deribit data revealed that the largest concentration of put options is below $60k, totaling $1.24 billion, meaning most traders are betting on a drop past this level. Analysts warn that if BTC breaks $60k, it could slide towards $50k, where the next-largest cluster of puts is.
In short, Bitcoin’s options volatility is heavily stacked, meaning a breakdown would trigger cascading liquidations. Naturally, the bigger question is whether the market is strong enough to hold above this level.
Options volatility and macro FUD put $60k to the test
At the time of writing, the market was only 15% confident that BTC will hold above this level.
On a bearish note, that means 85% of traders are expecting Bitcoin to break below it. When looking at both on-chain activity and macro indicators, that probability starts to carry real weight, adding pressure on the bulls.
Glassnode data pointed to Bitcoin options’ Open Interest climbing back towards its late Q4 2025 high, with the same sitting at 452k BTC, up from 255k BTC. That’s a significant 77% jump – Evidence of growing trader positioning.
Source: Glassnode
On the macro side, FUD returned as the U.S Supreme Court has set 20 February as the date for its long-anticipated ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariff case, adding another layer of uncertainty for traders.
Meanwhile, market sentiment remains heavily bearish, meaning even a small move in Bitcoin could trigger full-blown capitulation. Taken together, the situation is fragile, with significant pressure on bulls around $60k.
In this environment, the market’s 85% probability could very well hold.
Final Summary
- A break below $60k could trigger cascading liquidations, with the next cluster of puts at around $50k.
- In light of bearish sentiment, macro uncertainty, and an upcoming U.S. Supreme Court ruling, the 85% probability could very well hold.