Bitcoin derivatives traders are moving back into the market after an eight-month deleveraging phase, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, with Binance futures open interest now back above its 180-day moving average. The shift suggests risk appetite is returning after one of the longest reductions in leveraged exposure since the 2022 bear market.
Bitcoin Traders Are Returning
Darkfost said the deleveraging period began after the October 10 event, as Bitcoin’s correction coincided with a worsening global macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop. In that environment, traders reduced exposure across derivatives markets, with Binance futures activity showing a sustained contraction.
“Since the October 10 event, Bitcoin has gone through a prolonged deleveraging phase across derivatives markets, represented here through Binance futures activity,” Darkfost wrote. “Following the October 10 event, combined with the deterioration in the global macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop, traders largely opted to reduce risk. This deleveraging phase on Binance lasted roughly 8 months.”
The analyst’s framework identifies deleveraging periods when open interest falls below its 180-day moving average. In market terms, that suggests futures activity is declining as corrections force liquidations, position closures and a broader reduction in investor exposure. For Bitcoin, the latest stretch was notable not only for its duration, but for how closely it resembled the setup seen in 2022 before the FTX collapse triggered another wave of liquidations.
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The turning point appears to have emerged in early May. Binance open interest has risen from $6.4 billion in March to roughly $8.96 billion, Darkfost said, moving back above its 180-day average of about $8.75 billion. That crossover matters because it signals that derivatives activity is no longer in contraction relative to its medium-term trend.
“Since early May, however, the trend appears to be shifting,” the analyst wrote. “Binance Open Interest has risen from $6.4B in March to around $8.96B today, moving back above its 180 day average currently sitting near $8.75B. This effectively signals the end of the deleveraging period.”
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The return of futures positioning has likely reinforced Bitcoin’s rebound from its corrective phase, according to the analyst. As open interest rises, more traders are deploying capital into directional and leveraged strategies, adding liquidity and potentially amplifying price moves. In this case, Darkfost argued that the renewed participation has “clearly contributed to the ongoing upward correction.”
Still, the analyst stopped short of describing the move as a durable recovery. The distinction is important. A rise in open interest can mark renewed confidence, but it can also reflect short-term speculative positioning after a sharp drawdown. Darkfost framed the current move as a rebound trade rather than confirmation that Bitcoin has fully exited the pressure that began in October.
“Despite a macro environment that has continued to deteriorate, Bitcoin’s sharp correction attracted more speculative traders looking to play a rebound,” he wrote. “That said, this trend remains highly fragile, and these traders could exit just as quickly as they entered if BTC resumes the correction that started back in October.”
That fragility is the main risk in the setup. The same derivatives flows now supporting the rebound could reverse if spot momentum weakens or macro conditions deteriorate further. In that scenario, recently added leverage would become a source of downside pressure rather than support, especially if traders who entered for a rebound move are forced to unwind quickly.
At press time, BTC traded at $77,479.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com