Market analyst MorenoDV_ reports a muted response by Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) to a combined attack by the US and Israel on Iran. The observation is important considering the previous sell-offs that have dominated the market in recent months.
Bitcoin STH Reaction To Geopolitical Conflict Signals Seller Exhaustion – What Next?
The Bitcoin short-term holders refer to a cohort of investors who acquired Bitcoin over the last 155 days. They are described as the most reactive set of investors, and therefore, activity is often indicative of short-term volatility and price direction.
According to MorenoDV_ in a QuickTake post on February 27, these short-term holders are showing a moderate market response to the heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the US and Israel launched a coordinated attack on Iran. Using data from the Bitcoin STH P&L to exchanges 24H, the renowned market analyst reports subdued inflows to exchanges, indicating no panic profit taking or loss capitulation, even despite an event that has historically triggered a mass sell-off.
MorenoDV_ explains that this shift in market behavior came after the major market capitulation between February 5-6, when Bitcoin short-term holders sent 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss within 24 hours. Following this event, loss-driven inflows appear to have steadily reduced, indicating sellers’ exhaustion, or a positive shift from panic to patience.
With respect to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, there was no spike in STH exchange inflows even as prices dipped to around $63,000-$64,000. MorenoDV_ states that this important observation suggests a complete exit of weak hands from the market as well as significant absorption of recent liquidation pressure.
Looking ahead, if the STH holders maintain a muted response to other bearish triggers, it would suggest a market stabilization phase that has historically preceded a bullish market recovery arc. On the other hand, an increase in STH exchange inflows and realized losses would indicate market drawdown is incomplete, and investors still stand at risk of further decline.
Bitcoin Price Overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at $67,007, reflecting a slight rebound of 4.41% in the last 24 hours. In tandem, daily trading volume is up by 0.81% and valued at $40.81 billion.
The premier cryptocurrency continues to move within a defined range of $60,000-$70,000 as seen for the majority of February. While analysts continue to speculate on the cycle bottom, the conditions for a bullish reversal, such as a recovery in ETF inflows, a spike in LTH demand, or a dovish Fed outlook, also remain absent.