There’s a short window of opportunity on the way for Bitcoin [BTC].
Outflows look like they bottomed in late December, and BTC is now priced at less than miner costs, where selling usually eases. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal looks like it’ll draw a bigger market to BTC.
While the crypto community has resolved to sleep with one eye open this year, they may just emerge as beneficiaries!
Unintended (yet welcome) consequences
Source: X
Trump’s proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% is intended to help lessen the burden on consumers, but it could affect more than TradFi. Such a cap may limit access to credit for borrowers with lower credit scores (estimated to be less than 780).
Banks will reassess who they lend to and at what cost.
Source: X
This will inevitably leave a section of the market searching for alternatives. Some of this displaced demand may move toward Bitcoin and DeFi platforms where access is not tied to credit scores.
Risk is moving
The average cost to mine one BTC was around $101,600 as of the 10th of January, while Bitcoin itself was trading closer to $90,900 a day later. In simple terms, price has dipped below production cost.
Source: X
When mining becomes unprofitable, miners tend to slow selling and cut expenses. The level is seen as a floor.
This doesn’t guarantee an immediate rebound, but trading below miner cost has so far been where downside risk was lesser.
A stable market
Analyst Willy Woo recently noted on X that Bitcoin outflows likely bottomed in late December. That lines up with BTC dipping below miner production costs and the early rebound now forming.
Source: X
These flow changes often take weeks to show up in price, which helps explain Bitcoin’s slow recovery. Futures activity has also started to return, so there’s short-term support.
Still, he remains cautious about 2026 because liquidity has been weak since early last year.
Without a clear pickup in long-term spot inflows, any rally may struggle to hold.
Final Thoughts
- Bitcoin looks ready for a short-term rebound.
- Trump’s 10% credit card interest cap could push more borrowers toward BTC.