Bitcoin’s recent price drop coincided with large inflows into exchanges. However, this trend is starting to flip.
At press time, Exchange Netflow was back to negative territory, down to -303.67 BTC, while the 7-day cumulative sat at -1232 BTC. This reversal implies that fewer people are taking their coins off of exchanges immediately to sell.
Additionally, as sellers sold less aggressively, derivative conditions also got better.
Funding Rates fell drastically from .003985 to .000337, indicating that a lot of long positions were reduced. In addition, Open Interest (OI) increased only slightly to approximately $21.24 billion. This implies that there is little or no leverage being used.
However, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio was low at 10.46 and significantly lower than previous points in the cycle. This combination matters because stablecoin liquidity remains available while exchange selling pressure declines.
For now, Bitcoin appears to be moving from distribution toward stabilization, although stronger demand is still needed to confirm a sustained recovery.
IFP signals a potential market shift
A calm exchange outflow profile and cooling leverage recently suggested that selling pressure was beginning to ease. Against that backdrop, the Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) currently indicates a positive market positioning.
The IFP moved below its 90-day average throughout most of 2025 and early 2026 due to continued weakness, as prices dropped from just above $120,000 down to the $60,000 area.
Thus far during this period, bearish signals have been dominant. However, the last few weeks saw stabilization in the IFP indicator, and it began to move closer to the long-term averages.
These developments matter since previous bullish crossovers are typically associated with greater accumulation and better overall market conditions.
Prior green periods were also closely tied to larger price increases. Although the trend appears positive at present, there is still more work to do before a complete bullish reversal can occur. There needs to be additional strengthening in spot demand.
Together, declining exchange balances, cooling leverage, and improving IFP positioning indicate that sell-side pressure is declining. However, stronger spot demand will be required for a sustained recovery.
Final Summary
- Bitcoin [BTC] selling pressure continues to ease as exchange outflows return and leverage resets across derivatives markets.
- Bitcoin is showing early signs of accumulation, though stronger spot demand remains critical for trend confirmation.