Key Takeaways
Why did BTC.D rise even as Bitcoin fell?
Altcoins were bleeding harder than BTC, so capital rotated into Bitcoin as a relative safe-haven, pushing BTC dominance up 2.33% to 63%
Could BTC drop back to $100k?
If the $110k floor holds amid alt-to-BTC rotation, a slide to $100k looks unlikely, though traders should watch key divergences.
This week was a reminder that in crypto, timing is everything.
On one hand, nearly $20 billion in Bitcoin [BTC] positions got wiped, forcing many traders to take heavy losses. But some came out on top. One whale, for example, dropped a $735 million BTC short and scored big.
In fact, the move lined up so perfectly with macro FUD that traders are speculating about “insider trading,” showing just how key timing is. Which brings us to the big question: Is Bitcoin heading for a Q1-style breakdown?
Key BTC levels crumble as the market relives Q1 FUD
Just as the market seemed to be absorbing shocks, another crash hit.
It almost looked like the market had learned to shrug off surprises; however, Bitcoin’s 7% drop to $109k on the 10th of October proved tariffs can still shake conviction and trigger panic moves.
On the charts, BTC erased all late September–early October gains, pulling back 13% from its $125k ATH. The $116k–$119k support zone broke, even as short-term longs piled in heavy, flipping sentiment bearish in a flash.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Against this setup, a Q1-style -11.8% BTC drop wouldn’t be out of line.
Back then, Trump dropped back-to-back 25% tariffs in February and March, then rolled out sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” in April. The fallout? BTC nuked 30%, marking its worst sell-off since the 2022 bear market.
If history repeats, Bitcoin could be looking at its first red Q4 in two years. In fact, a dip back to $100k would be on the table. That said, a key divergence shows it might still be too early to call a full retreat.
Bitcoin slides while dominance spikes on altcoin sell-off
Despite the market-wide bleed, Bitcoin reclaimed over 60% market share.
Simply put, altcoins were crushed harder than BTC. Even on the dip, Bitcoin was still seen as the “safer bet,” which pushed Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) up 2.33% to 63%, bringing it back to early-August levels.
The fallout? The Altcoin Season Index dumped 12 points to 47, meaning the market is only halfway to a full-blown “Bitcoin Season.” This echoes Q1, when BTC.D peaked at 65%, setting up a 30% rebound in Q2.
Source: TradingView (BTC.D)
In short, despite the sell-off, BTC stayed the go-to safe-haven.
If this divergence holds, $110k could be forming a floor as capital rotates out of “high-risk, high-reward” alts into Bitcoin, something worth keeping a close eye on. In this context, a drop back to $100k becomes unlikely.