The U.S. government officially shut down at midnight after lawmakers in Congress failed to pass a new funding bill.
While Wall Street dumped in early trading, Bitcoin’s price surged to fresh highs above $118,000.
At 12:01 a.m., the funding bill that kept the government running expired, leaving large parts of the federal apparatus shuttered. Social Security recipients, federal workers, and travelers will feel the immediate effects, but markets are already showing signs of stress.
Bitcoin has traded sideways in recent months, but key liquidity indicators suggest a breakout may be near. Global M2 growth, stablecoin supply trends, and gold’s rally — which Bitcoin has closely tracked with a 40-day lag — all point toward upward momentum, with some analysts eyeing $150,000 in early November.
Futures on the three major U.S. indexes pointed lower today ahead of the opening bell in premarket trading: the S&P 500 was down 0.58%, Dow futures off 0.52%, and Nasdaq futures lower by 0.67%.
Meanwhile, along with Bitcoin’s price, gold spiked to an all-time record above $3,900 an ounce as investors fled into safe-haven assets.
Government black out?
Markets are also contending with a sudden blackout of government statistics. The shutdown means the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release weekly jobless claims or the September payrolls report. Inflation data slated for mid-October could also be delayed if the standoff drags on.
This week’s economic outlook is murky, with no jobs report on Friday, leaving the Federal Reserve to make rate decisions in the dark. Economists warn that each week of a government shutdown could trim GDP growth by 0.1–0.2 percentage points, with a quarter-long closure potentially shaving 2.4 points off Q4.
Amid the uncertainty, Bitcoin is stepping into gold and Wall Street’s traditional role.
The cryptocurrency has rallied sharply, rising more than 25% year-to-date, driven by institutional adoption and growing perception as a hedge against inflation and political risk.
The key question is how long the momentum will last. Historically, markets rebound quickly from shutdowns, with equities ending positive in over half of the 20 shutdowns since 1976. But threats of benefit cuts and layoffs could heighten risks this time.
Bitcoin is trading at $118,193 at the time of writing.