Since December 2025, Bitcoin’s [BTC] hashrate has slowly fallen. After an almost continuous uptick in hashrate from Q3 2021, the downturn of the past six months has been concerning.
In a post on CryptoQuant Insights, analyst Woominkyu pointed out that a meaningful pullback in the hashrate’s 30-day moving average was not unprecedented. The most notable dips were during the China mining ban in 2021, and the bear markets of 2018 and 2022.
The current drops of roughly 6.6% in the 7-day MA and 3% in the 30-day MA are far shallower than previous capitulation events, the analyst noted. Instead, the hashrate rollover represented miner capitulation. This could lead to a market bottom in the coming months.
In a post on X, Founder and CEO of Into The CryptoVerse, Benjamin Cowen, said
While this time may feel different, this is normally where BTC is at this point in midterm years.
Bitcoin sentiment reaches extreme fear, but capitulation is yet to be seen
The bull-bear index takes factors such as spot aggression, OI, funding, ETF flows, and exchange flows into account. According to the same, the BEAR side is active, but not close to the -40% extremes that marked the severe sell-off in February.
The moderate capital outflows showed controlled weakness, not outright panicked capitulation in the Bitcoin market.
Sentiment has collapsed through the floor. Extreme fear tends to yield greater risk/reward to brave buyers, but by itself, extreme fear does not mark a market bottom.
Emotion has fallen more than the capital flows, the analyst observed. It set up an interesting scenario as Bitcoin sank to its February lows.
There is a chance of a positive reaction at $62K, but any bounce would be a relief move instead of a recovery.
A breakdown below $60K would open the path to the real capitulation event.
Final Summary
- Hashrate drop is part of the cycle, and Bitcoin’s retreat has not been wildly different from previous midterm years.
- There is a chance of a price bounce from $62K, but recovery is not yet in sight.